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加息75个基点后 加密市场为什么会暴涨？
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原文标题：《Powell hikes 75 basis point and yet Nasdaq & Bitcoin are going to the moon》 原文作者：Alf 原文编译：TechFlow intern Powell（鲍威尔）加息 75 个基点，但纳斯达克和比特币却在大涨。 这到底是怎么回事？虽然我不认同这里正在展开的市场叙事，但让我试着解释一下，为什么我们正在目睹这样的反弹。 尽管公开承认经济增长正在走软，但美联储还是一致决定加息 75 个基点——这一切都是因为通胀、通胀和通胀。但是，只有当鲍威尔继续说以下的话时，市场才最终开始反弹： 「我们现在的水平与我们对中性利率的估计大体一致，在我们的加息周期提前到现在之后，我们今后将更加依赖数据。」 让我们来看看为什么这一点为什么跟反弹如此相关。 中性利率是经济发挥其潜力的现行利率——不会过热或过冷。随着这次加息 75 个基点，美联储刚刚达到其对中性利率的预估——从现在开始，他们不再使经济过热。 
但这也意味着从这里开始的任何加息都将使美联储处于一个积极的限制性领域。债券市场知道，每次美联储采取限制措施时，他们就会打破一些东西，所以鲍威尔被问到了几个非常重要的问题： 债券市场定价如何？(2023 年削减 70 多个基点) 金融条件如何？(债券和股票反弹，金融条件更宽松) 前瞻指引呢？ 跟反弹有什么关系？这一切都源于债券市场在过去几个月中对通货膨胀形成的非常强烈的看法：它将会下降，而且速度非常快。在 23 年 7 月至 24 年 7 月之间，CPI 的定价约为 2.9% = PCE ~ 2.5%，基本上达到了目标。 
谁会在这种市场条件下表现出色？纳斯达克和加密货币。如果美联储不再自动强制收紧金融条件，实际收益率实际上将再次开始下降。 
当实际收益率下降时，估值密集型和风险情绪驱动的资产类别表现出色。这是因为拥有现金美元的边际回报变得不那么有吸引力，追逐风险资产的动力更大：股指和 BTC。 我认为这轮反弹还有余力吗？我可以合理地解释 FOMC 后的上涨，但没有前瞻性指导，一个非常非常不稳定的美联储摆在我们面前。一个小的鹰派发言，它就会消失。你必须在此处计入一些额外的风险溢价，而不是减少！ 最后，债券市场透露什么？从现在到 12 月，债券市场对加息规模进行了一些猜测： 9 月 50 个基点 11 月 25 个基点 12 月 25 个基点 2023 年 50 个基点 当然，美联储鹰派可能会使得这个数字更高 |
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