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以本轮周期为鉴 探索链上数据对二级市场的投资价值
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原文标题：《链上数据对二级市场投资的价值》 撰文：欧科云链 & LUCIDA 「历史不会重演，但总会惊人的相似。」
引言自加密市场缩水近 2 万亿美元后，前段时间整体的上涨引发了部分市场观察人士对于底部的猜测。鉴于历史上加密资产有过多次集体飙升，事后又被证明不过是熊市的反弹，市场对于恐慌的抛售是否结束仍存在很多分歧。 考虑到加密资产与美股几乎同步，再加上通胀爆炸、美联储加息缩表的大背景下，加密资产的投资决策似乎变得更加艰巨。但一切真的无迹可寻吗？ 投机奇才 André Kostolany 曾说过：「崩盘通常是暴涨的前导，暴涨都以崩盘收尾，一再重复。」 金融市场的一条核心规律就是均值回归，只要市场不消亡，就一定存在周期更迭、牛熊交替，历史虽然不会相同，但会相似。 一直以来，我们都在寻找如何正确评估加密资产价值的方法，由于多数资产是在链上流转，而区块链公开、透明的特性就意味着有丰富的数据和指标可供挖掘、分析和参考。 在本文中，我们试图回溯本轮牛市（蓄势 - 暴涨 - 突破 6.4 万美元 - 崩盘 - 调整 - 再次暴涨 - 创 6.9 万美元新高 - 二度崩盘）的整个发展周期，并佐以链上数据和指标，希望能从中剥离出值得收藏和关注的数据，帮助大家拨开迷雾，更全面、深入地了解加密世界。 一、如何稳稳地获得加密圈的β收益传统市场有α收益和β收益一说，其中β收益指的是获取市场的平均回报，如 S&P 500、上证指数，而α收益则是投资中高于或低于市场平均水平的部分，通常用来考察主动投资的能力。 放到加密行业，由于 BTC 的市占率较高，熊市时甚至超过了 70%，再加上其他加密资产与 BTC 的相关性高，很多投资者将 BTC 作为计价本位，故 BTC 就代表了行业指数，持有 BTC 即可获得β收益。 1. |
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