×
Array
(
[fid] => 6728
[description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!
[password] =>
[icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 0
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 1
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
[fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验)
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验)
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则
[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
[139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询
)
[icons] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法
[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[sort] => 0
[orderby] => 2
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 5
[imagewidth] => 200
[imageheight] => 150
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 900
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6831
[type] => forum
[name] => 体育知识讲座
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 5
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 2735
[posts] => 23137
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 110
[oldrank] => 110
[lastpost] => 1810237 信用网 1708809076 果果哥
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 271 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。9 ^% y4 ~' T$ O& @7 g
5 h. Z7 c' g+ _1 s5 z2 R4 o
* N6 d! A( h& Z9 e* C7 ~西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
3 l s, l* T$ Z# c0 X4 u* k2 L% h* X) T* n5 l7 k
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:0 q: l) V7 O @, K$ ?1 n9 t
" q- b( E K4 Y3 h+ k) m皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ) x7 |/ G3 @( }# K" C6 K0 d1 ?+ n" y
) `9 H3 ~6 n* L. S
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
; o# w3 @( x6 z N9 x6 I
; I) D' u, n. d$ c, f答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)8 _) E2 }' L8 T( \
8 a% U5 p$ W2 \1 r! K% h0 f. r7 f& ]
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
1 D$ M9 e0 u" I8 N( t6 D" {
: S0 H+ I4 l0 s# l( ?9 ^6 @9 Z |0 B" C/ K4 I
盈利可能性
8 W: g; G- R+ k: i: A- j3 ~6 o2 {2 \( L
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
/ I9 @7 j. X* r. s5 f0 e3 p7 N; D: ~& [( j$ F, U; q
增值
2 e$ u( |' `2 e3 Q9 E3 Z0 P$ ^4 Y' n. P l' b+ E! p* k0 F7 F
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。& `: F; M n2 C c% j! z+ m
& q& |; V# |- X; B# ~
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢? D9 d' O5 d4 z6 i! u! A
; N0 S: ^( t* h: m; Da) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 : @) \3 \6 U; r7 ~, b& f
# K, S. m) o) X9 H
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么5 ?% U' M5 k% r9 i7 c
( Q! Q6 T* S. C' P9 _" o
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润' v/ M. v4 @, U Z) c( S" ?' g+ ?1 M
60%的机会你会一无所有# Z- T) I+ c9 H" A" B- A
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
& Z2 c3 ]- O2 @. z& t7 e2 V! T: J由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
4 a) O) Q5 B, D+ p* f$ Q8 \7 H
0 q2 E# N1 }4 W ^增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
* x1 D( T8 O8 n/ \ k1 D5 h( q' j9 K3 z* D' g
基于增值的投注
3 b, N( d# t& y r( A" U* }* B2 f7 N5 o8 r& Z/ X
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
; o: k1 O9 i, r$ Q- I: _
3 [0 E+ t$ p( P( [: Y公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
9 e3 Z3 g! q2 O1 {6 U
) H5 H" T( w8 Y6 g! \A=博彩资金
: p4 G1 {% }* Y* |2 `/ ZP=获胜机会
; i) [! e7 p) @O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)5 Y- p3 O! `; k2 L- P8 ] d
. L. F1 p' ^1 b n) r' k
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。2 `* W4 [1 A1 T" `0 W
! y0 `! V# f/ T+ Y( x. \6 y
好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。4 L5 d0 e: V4 H" d5 R
' _$ o: p8 c3 a1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
0 {$ a$ u) u* B+ Q
( \' Y# d0 b6 [# R7 H0 `& _A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
3 v5 r! ?2 o' _9 d q
) r& S0 C5 `/ aA=02 W- R7 ], R4 E, s0 H; m
/ ?# ~" {8 P0 p4 i @( r4 n& n
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
7 q: T8 P7 c' c( M7 ~$ @; O
, ~2 A1 F2 \ @1 D) A6 f# V+ ~2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
3 o. c: b' C, r$ p( g. v5 e4 P) s" d' T4 u' E. ]( {3 L
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
! [! {3 v) u+ a! ]6 f5 b4 R _0 ^. b0 L. @ l+ _, o0 \
A=0.1) f0 i: D8 L" r1 z/ r5 [
5 t% Q! m4 R- a- D. j结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去4 Z. C% e2 o# s8 m2 c- D
5 ^# Y: Q' h4 r
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
0 Z* m) Y1 R& d( V5 _& Z4 p* Q. x" O+ _- |
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)2 t+ u3 c1 K4 U2 c# {
% m# _6 q0 s# d; c$ L: X. yA= -0.2 # ~) D, v2 {: N% s
: C" Y5 q1 f, B$ h3 l+ I
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好1 t; ^+ o/ D& t/ e4 p% ]* U1 c% Q
5 P( R. `% N, F+ r6 B
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 968 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 800 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7136 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4235 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|