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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。+ y- j8 A! h" o# ]7 ?/ v& f# j% S
5 j4 L6 T1 J' c k$ c* d: m g; M
, ]# W7 m4 R) {& ]西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率7 `8 U8 C& P7 x( r4 M% |
/ H( i4 z: I. ~& s5 Y' S
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:( ]- h3 l2 Y0 N
* b+ h: P! N: x t) T$ o: ? j5 [6 X# P, i
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
: ?- ]: ~: x, s, G) N; l, l7 i6 E6 T% `* A
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?3 L1 x, X) h& `# w( X( O n8 Q" G
3 S* T1 y7 |, L B7 x, o) y- F" }答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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8 ^( n& V5 t4 g( R+ V! a- n- v: b- @$ w$ K3 `0 C
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
# Q% S2 `# b3 Z. W5 ~6 }& K6 b9 n8 q- W% L: U3 ^8 {2 L6 n( X; ?5 r) K
' J5 w: |- ^5 n盈利可能性
5 I% Q! ~8 {( _& s0 X8 U+ n$ b, p- K0 l9 S' X; J
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
: t; _: u2 ?8 t2 M$ X: {$ ~1 b
# V) b* D3 K, e, ~增值
4 v8 A! } o! v0 d; z( r( ]/ y7 y1 R3 l' Z$ Z g
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
0 ?3 z/ @! F; R; o- |
* b D+ [0 Q8 r( U你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
# K) B" `* r% T4 s* V4 W+ s1 h2 ]5 {( O2 {) T
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
+ R# t3 ?. f, G) m% n: T, j) o5 m% n8 D
0 A6 a& T+ N) D; h2 h9 B- _4 K) v正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
3 V: [6 j. P6 g2 s4 D; k# G* m# @
+ M# R( `# W( K3 b40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
' n$ S( @! i0 }2 b# N; J60%的机会你会一无所有3 d/ ]1 h' n4 H, K4 _, b% l: y- s
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 " R" r9 t% b, l6 t! D
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。9 M9 F& F |7 n: i. U
; { M+ z6 ~/ l) w/ I8 `- S2 c增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。2 n/ a6 W4 e2 z. W8 v/ b
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基于增值的投注. \& ?8 f! e' v( U0 V
. j% ? f2 ^, ]3 P9 m' G# B
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。: X g: i7 g/ Y8 k. F9 P
1 {% D$ y4 r7 O' A, h7 h+ D
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
6 T+ ~% i3 U4 C* p3 o* x* c, k( H/ C# H+ d
A=博彩资金) m& T4 {. O- }! Y, ~8 C$ {
P=获胜机会8 e+ f' i% Z( \; j7 M, }
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
2 P$ i' `" ^: t, O1 Y0 J2 @3 J8 U/ V# o9 T2 Z
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。4 ~ x/ ~9 g; [+ b' J; T
9 i% N7 ^4 o( y4 z, l好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
3 `2 `* ?7 B0 S
! O" o5 k$ M8 O8 X1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)( T+ p" r8 q% y& l9 ^# t0 e
$ m# z2 ?* p3 a; f( \9 v0 d/ }) vA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)& e2 _$ ~. v0 B, m' u! A
" f0 }; F! N R# P( f7 O
A=05 ?. u1 z. Z& w# A2 u
0 f# ] D v7 Q" ], f# p$ r结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢7 i) r/ J$ ^, G9 ?9 i1 \
. w! i6 x) L5 `/ R M8 I; g+ ^2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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$ d; i- |" l9 g0 VA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)0 {( [. M$ v" \6 u7 h6 j! L: Q0 j
4 r! }& a5 l" O; x4 e) l
A=0.1
8 U) l' C! M0 p% v x- Z4 Q' ^/ x! O5 K6 _# K: N9 ^
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去6 E% U7 o" |/ s
) d& A5 `+ g# r4 W
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
- g( `1 [4 d% u( h) ~# S+ G2 i" ]# a3 S) @6 `& ]7 m$ ~
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)0 V$ S0 ^' k! Y! g' U7 f% G
! ?+ z9 M% |* e; a" tA= -0.2 - b9 A4 [4 W, u3 u3 x9 z( r
+ h* G& M) v5 ^; p" @+ f- f
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
- d/ Q: j# W5 x( s
/ U. I0 f: ]& f m第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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