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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。9 ^% y4 ~' T$ O& @7 g
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* N6 d! A( h& Z9 e* C7 ~西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:0 q: l) V7 O  @, K$ ?1 n9 t

" q- b( E  K4 Y3 h+ k) m皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ) x7 |/ G3 @( }# K" C6 K0 d1 ?+ n" y
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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; I) D' u, n. d$ c, f答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)8 _) E2 }' L8 T( \

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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。& `: F; M  n2 C  c% j! z+ m
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?  D9 d' O5 d4 z6 i! u! A

; N0 S: ^( t* h: m; Da) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 : @) \3 \6 U; r7 ~, b& f
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么5 ?% U' M5 k% r9 i7 c
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润' v/ M. v4 @, U  Z) c( S" ?' g+ ?1 M
60%的机会你会一无所有# Z- T) I+ c9 H" A" B- A
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
& Z2 c3 ]- O2 @. z& t7 e2 V! T: J由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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0 q2 E# N1 }4 W  ^增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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3 [0 E+ t$ p( P( [: Y公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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) H5 H" T( w8 Y6 g! \A=博彩资金
: p4 G1 {% }* Y* |2 `/ ZP=获胜机会
; i) [! e7 p) @O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)5 Y- p3 O! `; k2 L- P8 ]  d
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。2 `* W4 [1 A1 T" `0 W
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。4 L5 d0 e: V4 H" d5 R

' _$ o: p8 c3 a1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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( \' Y# d0 b6 [# R7 H0 `& _A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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, ~2 A1 F2 \  @1 D) A6 f# V+ ~2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1) f0 i: D8 L" r1 z/ r5 [

5 t% Q! m4 R- a- D. j结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去4 Z. C% e2 o# s8 m2 c- D
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)2 t+ u3 c1 K4 U2 c# {

% m# _6 q0 s# d; c$ L: X. yA= -0.2 # ~) D, v2 {: N% s
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好1 t; ^+ o/ D& t/ e4 p% ]* U1 c% Q
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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