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比特币在特朗普关税威胁下遭遇重挫，曾经的"特朗普交易"热点正经历严峻考验。
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28日，比特币单日暴跌高达7.3%，跌至自去年11月以来的最低点，较历史高点下跌 25%。整个2月，比特币已下跌超过20%。若这一跌势持续到月底，将创下自2022年6月以来的最大月度跌幅。- w3 p; z5 h h) K* L' ]' [
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此次暴跌并非比特币独自承受，以太坊、Polkadot和XRP等其他主要加密货币同日均下跌超过7%，显示出加密市场的普遍恐慌情绪。BTC Markets Pty Ltd的首席执行官Caroline Bowler表示：
9 }8 |* m0 D: R8 {; ~8 g! G% i0 N* a+ o" u4 t0 A2 I
"上一次我们看到类似情绪还是在2022年的'加密寒冬'期间。这次暴跌可以视为对特朗普关税和地缘ZZ不确定性等宏观忧虑的直接反应。"* }6 ?1 q8 m& B# ]1 w2 I
- z$ b- n/ { N) e- m! P"特朗普交易"幻灭：加密资产从狂欢到挫折" w" k1 b1 Z6 I
据央视新闻，特朗普于2月27日宣布，从3月4日起将对加拿大和墨西哥实施25%的关税。这一消息打击了市场此前对特朗普可能改变贸易政策路线的期望。 R* ?6 X- g( v" L
% k' m' B0 V( b# C0 A: R, w贸易紧张局势导致28日全球市场普遍出现避险情绪，亚洲股市几乎全线下跌，欧洲期货也出现下滑。但作为对风险情绪变化极为敏感的资产，加密货币成为受打击最严重的投资品类之一。4 R. p5 H c5 \0 M
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比特币的暴跌凸显了市场情绪的急剧转变。曾经，买入比特币是最受欢迎的"特朗普交易"之一，投资者期望特朗普亲加密货币的政策立场将推动市场大幅上涨。加密托管公司Bitgo Inc亚太地区场外交易总监Stefan von Haenisch表示：
~8 O; N" [6 f8 [- N
) J8 B6 M w8 p& L# l* B"考虑到当前宏观环境，我们现在的处境并不令人意外。"
+ k9 o2 \+ [; x6 _. F
1 u0 o. P8 H) B# I+ K他补充说，交易员仍在等待特朗普为该行业提出具体措施，包括比特币储备计划。
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* n* W: x/ N' ^4 Y市场前景：技术支撑与投资者撤资" \$ D) r* m" U2 R2 g4 {
投资者现在被迫思考世界上最大的加密货币可能会跌至何处。加密平台YouHodler的市场主管Ruslan Lienkha通过技术分析指出，比特币在70000美元附近有支撑位，但他表示投资者不应假设比特币崩盘会那么严重。Lienkha指出：+ l) a$ m" l1 v/ k) \
1 y4 m: d7 R' M4 p" p: ^8 o"只有在股票市场负面情绪主导的情况下，我们才会看到这一价位。"0 r* \5 d6 ?1 K- h3 {4 s
- m: L( P. y7 ?, d K. K6 e& W$ H负面情绪本周也冲击了现货美国比特币ETF，周二投资者净流出超过10亿美元，创下这些产品自去年推出以来的最大单日流出。
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尽管市场遭遇挫折，特朗普已经做出一些令加密货币支持者欣喜的改变，包括在关键职位安排加密货币支持者。此前在前任主席Gary Gensler领导下对加密行业进行多年打击的美国证券交易委员会，近几周来已关闭了对几家加密机构的调查。
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特朗普曾表示，他希望将美国打造成"地球的加密货币之都和世界比特币超级大国"。然而，市场目前的表现表明，实现这一愿景可能比预期更具挑战性。0 g: b+ u, m. O% d9 f4 w
! w0 R/ t; ~# W& o! Y根据彭博社策略师Mark Cudmore的观点，真正的恐慌可能还未到来。他警告说：) Y9 _ H0 `- r- r2 g
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"比特币未来总会经历另一次70%以上的崩盘，这是其固有特性。72000-74000美元区间可能是触发下一个加密寒冬的技术临界点。"4 d+ |9 g2 p. | r3 q
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