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[lastpost] => 2648077 未来牛市高达100倍的3种加密货币准备爆发(转) 1715100263 中大奖
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历史长河的逆流,正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。) l8 c* ~- C+ N9 P" |2 g" L! o
- g- ?9 r8 k- M, a! L许多朋友很不理解,为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4,不仅多数大宗价1 W+ Q+ }" m" \0 s
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格在上涨,而且,类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速0 z! P2 M8 P* r# x; V
; w: @: E3 p. x7 h8 B. o2 d
猛涨(黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%,比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%)?
( t0 c7 @6 c+ V* d* V/ M# R
8 D2 J+ O' P) u+ |5 K8 a7 [对此进行回答,之于事后解释,机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。* G: U) V6 }* Y
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这样的答案,错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑,逻辑主次不分。9 \; K" k8 b' m0 r7 s$ t2 h/ O: _
5 d# }3 H4 S+ k0 ~' @ ^( r6 c' v比如美联储预期要降息这一解释,要知道,从2022年3月美联储启动疯* E! f6 l: z( e A
1 K. z# [+ G6 E" r, A
狂加息至今,美联储的事实降息一次也没有,明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加3 @1 m$ p! Z! n1 L
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了525多个基点——但是,在这一疯狂加息的区间,从2022年3月开始,
# e' M* E) x6 C" @7 }5 v1 B9 s% t- R: Q: ]/ C! m
黄金价格是大幅上涨的,比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。
( F6 S; t) }- w- w, q+ C1 w
" i* F9 ]9 l7 }当然,近期中东危机的升级信号,这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉
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# A K" ~& K! |3 S升,但这事实依然无法解释,为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超9 M8 n- F' [. d& _1 G
' n6 Z' t% ^' f: ]" f6 C9 V! \9 m X+ s
高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。9 b7 {8 F2 j" k4 h7 H' c
4 Q2 A Q( d6 ?5 [
回答这一切,追溯这一切的逻辑源起,必须进行宏观升维,必须将其置
9 ]! y. }$ L* C Z' d5 K- `2 u9 k% |! R
于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资- n6 s E! `# }2 Z
5 u4 g6 {& f+ w7 _3 N/ P& M
产价格走势的研判逻辑源起,这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著
: v/ T; X9 G3 O3 s4 \; q/ Q
' B! i0 ]- v- l( [% M3 l跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。+ v: k. s- F! k6 G
A" I& ~1 E1 J- G
之于大历史周期,过去两年,全球化共识在加速撕裂,且这一加速撕裂之1 d. Q6 O4 R- b" S' L
% R: f- ]5 m, j) e; t4 E* Y3 _3 W
于中长期,本质是不可逆的(当然,不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性)。/ J$ W9 B' J& I. [' I6 o5 V
4 J! ~& h6 a6 b6 o0 {8 d而之于逻辑派生,全球化共识的加速撕裂,必然会派生出全球货币共识的加
' M8 c& w/ l# @% Z
7 I$ d2 A- @* l2 ^' O( _% M7 M1 d' r速崩裂,尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。
0 s/ ?1 d: M% a D( b% b1 w: n( m& Z# E, [8 | y
确认中美货币正在加速撕裂,除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外(与
2 O- w8 m' M7 P J$ }* p
1 c6 Y3 s7 Y) _- I V |全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算),还有更重要的维度,且这一更重) L7 G3 g4 `6 ^& e9 t1 O/ C
8 h }( M! b5 v/ E7 C3 E要的维度,事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。6 Q8 j# D( k, B) E4 G* ^/ n
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