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[lastpost] => 2646960 今天比特币涨了，TRX也跟着涨了。愁人 1714692121 hangaibing
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历史长河的逆流，正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。9 w$ \# z9 s/ q3 l/ Z$ S$ d8 X: Q
6 J" I6 f5 n1 Y; B. O, n; p许多朋友很不理解，为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4，不仅多数大宗价; e9 U& |# P* M6 S0 E1 T& i0 G
% J- d+ L' O, C H格在上涨，而且，类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速
* w- U8 k- u" q4 k5 h& g ?8 }+ G! Z; u# r. s3 j7 j
猛涨（黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%，比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%）？- S T+ F# t1 L8 N2 M
- s" S' [/ X4 U1 q0 k! C对此进行回答，之于事后解释，机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。. N. V6 f+ i- X* O
! x0 k+ n) W( i这样的答案，错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑，逻辑主次不分。
# Z7 b$ n' G5 m0 u/ j# m" k. Q1 b9 l! R: l4 n1 C) m
比如美联储预期要降息这一解释，要知道，从2022年3月美联储启动疯- q, a6 E n0 K% s% c a
" S1 i5 M/ ^, X. F# t6 C
狂加息至今，美联储的事实降息一次也没有，明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加7 B. r! R7 S, I) m" l, }
) v; D. p. T$ s
了525多个基点——但是，在这一疯狂加息的区间，从2022年3月开始，, p/ e" W: f; E' k6 x5 d/ a
% a, W6 D9 u' `' I: P& ?7 v. ~- E6 f4 u黄金价格是大幅上涨的，比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。$ [, X$ v" P$ y$ u* Z
* |5 Y# J/ p6 x% _1 z k' [; Y当然，近期中东危机的升级信号，这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉8 Q5 M y* @- z
/ v9 Z4 M3 T; s- m' ^% V4 M* }升，但这事实依然无法解释，为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超
& N, u$ T' M0 _3 L; |4 g8 D# D9 s* ^! V
高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。
" N& y7 G, t. p& n2 [# f% T1 e$ c. w3 K- v+ {% y5 |( c+ l; ^
回答这一切，追溯这一切的逻辑源起，必须进行宏观升维，必须将其置7 l7 _4 a9 Y' N. ?- Q
, \) H( ?* g7 Y a4 J- U
于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资
! I5 W; h$ w9 W- m- f4 {
* `. w# t& y1 s$ Z产价格走势的研判逻辑源起，这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著
! ] K% F6 w9 X2 \4 G
3 y/ \1 b! a3 K h跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。
6 j2 J& V7 U1 J2 {7 A4 m$ W" }9 I$ H, Q( b: U* v4 x8 P5 _
之于大历史周期，过去两年，全球化共识在加速撕裂，且这一加速撕裂之+ U. h# ]3 C+ R3 a6 m( E: s, N
) o$ `! `) ?; Z) ?6 R* F
于中长期，本质是不可逆的（当然，不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性）。 Q; N8 a1 R9 p* b" `
# b- G0 e6 \" l2 t' Z* ]而之于逻辑派生，全球化共识的加速撕裂，必然会派生出全球货币共识的加
4 t5 U+ H+ z4 `+ g5 F7 B1 T- C
速崩裂，尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。
: i/ {2 D) H- v0 u. T6 V$ v( A& r8 O" S* b; t& C0 u6 ^
确认中美货币正在加速撕裂，除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外（与
6 k# E1 {! P8 z; x; _' w! s+ b7 d) D/ }
全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算），还有更重要的维度，且这一更重
7 w0 a. g. I5 }4 g1 y; k n5 X/ K( ^! A0 ]. R' J( H$ H
要的维度，事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。' A+ \4 r4 ]' m3 }" N
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