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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[本章要点]
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本部分是以足彩竞猜中常见赛事的盘路走势为研究对象,对五大联赛及足彩中的新成员英冠联赛的盘路数据做出统计与分析,并具体到盘口和水位、盘口变化及球队表现,来综合分析盘路走势对比赛结果的影响,并做出投注提示和建议。联赛盘路分析,除了对预测足彩结果具有辅助作用外,还对单场、竞彩、外围投注、走地大小球等玩法具有较大的参考价值和指导作用。, s7 Z7 S9 o# g8 H+ p% r$ l" T6 h
     在此要强调的是,球队在不同赛季可能出现一些新的变化,因此各个赛季中的盘路也会存在一定差异,这种差异主要发生在球队表现和盘口变化这两个方面。那么,既然存在这些变化和差异,盘路数据的意义又何在呢?再就是,上个赛季的盘路数据对新赛季的参考价值到底有多大?对这些问题首先举例说明,例如,08-09赛季中英超主队平半初盘、临场出现降盘时,打出30的概率较高,而到了09-10赛季中,主队出3的可能性基本可以排除。或者是意甲某队在上个赛季主场让半球时其胜率比较高,而进入新赛季却屡战不胜。对于这些变化,首先要参考以前的盘路数据,找出当时支持或否定出3的根本原因何在,这一点通过复查以前盘路数据是完全可以做到的。再就是还需要结合比赛当时的具体情况和盘口及水位等因素进行综合分析。还有很重要的一点是,对新赛季盘路数据的统计和应用的原则应该是“季初着手、六轮应用”,也就是说在联赛进行到六轮以后,本赛季的盘路特征才开始呈现出规律性,联赛进行的时间越久、比赛轮次越多、可积累的盘路数据就越多,而此时将盘路数据作为看盘的辅助工具使用,其作用和价值才越能够得到充分的体现。
. S, r  Z! P0 I6 }6 [, k1 y) s* p     最重要的一点是,在本书的联赛盘路研究部分,球队表现和临场变化所占的比重并不是很大,而本书主要是针对某种具体水位与比赛结果之间的关系所进行的统计与分析,这种具体水位下的发生率即使在不同赛季,其总体走势也是大致相同的,所以其实用性并不受赛季的影响。例如,在多个赛季中,英超、西甲等联赛中的平手盘,在初盘超低水下主队不败率极高,而到了0.80水以上时,则主队胜率开始明显下降。这些盘路特征是没有赛季之分的,因为它们本身还蕴含着博彩公司的操盘手法和盈亏考虑在里面。5 ~" K2 k+ B4 n! t/ E* E
     ( a" z2 t. {; C& }
     注:2009-2010五大联赛统计截止日期为 2010年2月30日) S" a" A+ B+ P* y& Q: S, P+ ^
         2009-2010英冠联赛统计截止日期为 2010年4月20日
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
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