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[体育菠菜心得方法] 赔率与交易量对比法
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1#
此方法还可以延伸到亚盘、大小球玩法中。在此只介绍下赔率与交易量对比对预测赛果的影响。讲到这个方法,首先要解决的问题是这个交易量从何得来?其实这个问题很好解决,笔者观察交易量目前都是通过bbs.bf168.net/(必发网)交易数据来完成。该网站对具备一定级别的赛事都给出与伦敦必发交易所较为同步的交易筹码信息,这一点也是现代极其发达的资讯技术带给广大彩民的便利。此类方法的要点是:通过必发交易量与赔率高低及变化情况的对比,来分析庄家的盈亏平衡点。具体方法举例说明:2 h3 V6 t. S9 M  S* j5 e
     富勒姆4-1尤文图斯
) Y; n5 T/ O) L+ Y2 \7 ^" ]! V     主队投注比例:63% 成交量:948万港元! z0 }( V& v7 o# `3 o9 t: m9 T" J
     平局投注比例:11% 成交量:170万港元3 W& x6 i8 b4 R* y
     客胜投注比例:26% 成交量:375万港元
- l) `9 C1 ~% q  u4 @' I! U     立博初赔:2.37 3.20 2.60 立博终赔:2.37 3.25 2.87
+ ^' p* A2 O9 d8 m- p     威廉初赔:2.25 3.20 2.75 威廉终赔:2.40 3.30 2.90
8 a3 k' M5 K) h2 n5 i     必发初赔:2.42 3.35 2.54 必发终赔:2.42 3.50 3.304 t8 O  g6 x5 H* {7 M
     分析:通过必发的交易信息我们可以发现,主队的成交量已经接近1000万,占据了6成以上的投注比例,客队也达到了近380万的交易金额,平局最少只有170万交易额约11%的投注比例。主客胜的交易量在早盘阶段势均力敌,都有大单出现形成对冲局面,而平局相对显得不够激烈。这种交易所内的较量,导致平局赔率从受注开始后即稳定在了3.30较高赔付点上面,直到临场都没有改变,由此可以判断本场比赛平局的可能基本排除。而主客胜赔率经过反复争夺后主队逐渐占据上风,主胜买单激增、客胜防御疲软无力,主胜赔率趋于稳定而客胜赔率一路走高。以威廉希尔和立博的赔率走势为例:
+ j3 F5 b/ ]  H* |+ F6 W  h" z     威廉胜赔:2.25 2.40 2.30 2.40. ~+ B9 w. H  k' @7 r, [2 S
     威廉平赔:3.20 3.30 3.30 3.30
& N5 e$ |, P  S6 \     威廉负赔:2.75 2.90 3.10 2.909 R3 A/ E6 _$ B! z, W( P
     立博胜赔:2.37 2.37 2.37
7 ~: z2 M5 i  r; {( c) i' x     立博平赔:3.20 3.25 3.25% W# h# x  I+ |& }2 B5 j. O
     立博负赔:2.60 3.00 2.87! Y$ W1 T8 b' W- r7 R
     进入临场前1小时,主队交易异常活跃,在2.48赔率区间出现多笔大宗交易,最高一笔达到60万港币,并不断伴有散户资金注入,虽然客胜与平局方面也有交易,但是客胜量与早盘相比明显减弱。此时必发赔率经过多次震荡又回到了起点的2.42的赔率,同时我们也可以发现,立博的主胜始终稳定在2.37上。虽然后期客胜出现几次10万左右的大单交易,但是赔率还是固定在了2.87-2.90高位区间,较于初赔升幅较大。这种赔率走势显然是受到了主胜资金冲击的影响,对于交战往绩占优的尤文方面形成了极其不利的局面。更有意思的是,当富勒姆在3-1领先时,必发交易所在1.02超低赔付下竟然又出现了一笔高达500万港币的主胜买单(即买进3-1以外主队再进一球),当时笔者判断,势必是有场外机构得到了富勒姆继续进球的信息。在比赛进入到82分钟时,富勒姆果然神奇的再次击穿尤文大门,4-1大胜意甲劲旅。这个赛果和那个500万大单不得不令笔者叹服场外高人的胆略和手笔。
) j; Q/ w) B$ R) F     将必发交易量变化与赔率变化对比的方法,其前提条件是要求玩家具备一定的必发数据分析能力。关于结合必发交易数据预测比赛的更具体的方法,笔者将邀请该方面专家共同著书与大家交流。
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2#
谢谢楼主分享心得
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3#
你看的到交易量吗?
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4#
新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主分享好文章!
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谢谢楼主,楼主辛苦了
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7#
谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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