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[体育菠菜心得方法] 看盘基础盘之判断合理性(转)
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看盘基础盘之判断合理性

我们知道博彩公司对我们而言有着信息资金人力等多种巨大的优势,比赛对庄家盈利而言大致有三种,一是没有内幕消息,只有自己分析得来得胜平负概率(事实现在这种情况也算是很少了)这种比赛庄家主要会以抽水为盈利方式,即让上下盘资金总额维持基本平衡,这样无论谁打出庄家都可以安心抽水盈利。如果资金总额上下盘太过于悬殊直达天文数字,倾斜得一方又是极有可能胜一方,各种操盘方式也不足以平衡资金情况下,博彩公司迫不得已只有采取特殊手段了,即操控比赛!如传言中九八世界杯决赛,巴西对法国资金量已经以亿计量得情况下,资金下注巴西与法国之比几乎已到十比一,若真得巴西胜出对博彩业而言绝对是场灾难。第三种既是庄家但却不一定直接操控,但对比赛结果却已经比较有把握,这两种情况下庄家自然不满足抽水盈利,庄家就会通过盘口得调整水位得升降,正确把握闲家心理前提下尽可能引导大众买输盘得一方,买输到处都是。买赢得就那么几个。利润自然达到了最大,但这过程中,庄家虽然有误导,但却同样也是一个破绽,在我们承认庄家大部分比赛都是在误导我们得前提下,我们就可以得出这么一个结论,即大多数人对面为庄家真正看好得一方,原理也就是庄家不可能放纵一方热而不管,越是受关注程度大比赛越是如此(大热出虽有,但毕竟少数)
' [; b  Z  e2 H3 ~7 N- V这也就是我们常说得:大热死与众为敌活!但随之而来得问题就是如何知道大众投注心理,如何知道庄家在误导我们下哪方,这就要进入正题,看盘口得合理性!9 \9 j6 d+ p# N( I
赌客得天性就是怕风险却又趋利润,庄家所有得所谓诱盘也基于如此,本该开一球得盘现在开半一,本来赢两个球才又利润现在只要一个,你动心不动心?本来半球打平要全输,现在平半打平之输一半,风险小了你去不去?本来受半球,输个全输现在一球输一个也不算你输,你去不去?所以盘皆假盘。几乎每个盘有诱盘因素。问题是你如何看破,上面说得只是简单得通过升降盘来误导投注。但更多时候盘口变化并没有如此剧烈,盘口也介于合理与不合理之间,这是需要更细心得分析推理已经经验,我们简单说下如何判断盘口得合理性。
2 u& g4 V$ T6 ^9 p; H判断一个盘口是否合理,主要有以下数据:一主客场成绩:应该是看这个盘口有无明显得下注某方过于有利,如主客场成绩判断/主队主场还没输过,客队客场平局虽对但还未曾胜过,那么这样得盘口一开平半则明显得对上盘下注过于有利,因为第一感觉是买上盘最差是打平,买下盘最好也只是打平,所以若真有这样得对比盘口正常都应在半球方合理。平半有诱买上的嫌疑。因为平局全输资金才足以分流。1 h# n# g" Q0 `% S  ~& z
二,欧洲赔率,欧洲赔率虽然夹杂公司得利润率,但总体而言对胜平负得概率仍然非常客观,所以一般朋友都知道通过欧洲赔率转化亚盘来找出差异从而发掘问题,这些并无多讲之处,我个人通常用欧洲平均赔率来换算,再同时用四大公司各换算一次,看盘口得上下限是多少。很多时间我们并无经验一场球该开多少时候建议各位多相信欧赔的支持范围% l: j1 T7 g! @$ p8 d
三。往绩盘口。通过往年双方对阵盘口对比现在得盘口从而找出差距,这也是比较可靠得一种方式,队伍还是那两个队,在实力没有明显的升降情况下。去年开半球今年却只是平受则显然值得思索其中问题。如上周曼联对布莱客本,对阵去年盘口依然是半球,欧赔曼联胜也差不多但曼联输的赔率却比去年高了不少,平赔却低了很多,显然博彩公司相对去年曼联输给对手而言这次更看好曼联打平却不输。5 g- L2 d) o3 q% o# w* c- F
四,历史战绩,如今天下午的浦和红瓒对横滨水手,澳门开平半,蒲和主场六胜两平。横滨水手客场四胜两平两负,欧洲赔率支持平半中水,一切都合规矩似乎没有倾向性,但翻看历史战绩,蒲和近几年对横滨水手都只有两胜,往年盘口只是平手,如此综合不难发现。这个盘口明显相对去年还是历史战绩都是高看主队一线!
3 V: W" A0 `% e+ N% v# t3 {9 ~+ P五,舆论背景,我们来看下这两场比赛。上赛季英超最后一轮,曼联已经铁定第三名,此时他的对手阿斯顿维拉却保留争四进冠军杯的希望,澳门初盘居然是曼联客受让平半。要知道维拉主场虽然凶悍,但怎么曼联也足以让他平半。这个盘口不合理性,大众显然都能看破,但却不能不忽视此时的交战背景,即上面所说,双方战意!!上面说过曼联此战无关大局,维拉却是非胜不客,澳门消息也是放水谣言四起,真是山雨欲来风满楼,那么此时开出这样的盘口。大众自然以为是庄家认定曼联要放水了,哪里还贪这个便宜。自以为看破了这个盘!多说一句,最后临庄家为了让大众更无顾虑买维拉盘口降为平手联打平输盘担心都不必有。

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感觉不太实用的
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学习学习学习学习学习了
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谢谢楼主的分享
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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