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[体育菠菜玩法规则] 足球返还率解析玩足彩必知的返还率计算公式
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1#
  喜欢足彩的朋友可以能会有怎么样的疑问:足球返还率是怎么计算的?返还率的计算公式是什么?足球返还率可以通过欧洲赔率这样的公式进行计算
8 `: Z# n6 k7 o- E- }( `1 f/ _: x  欧洲赔率的平均返还率大约是90%,这个的意思就是欧洲博彩公司平均利润率是10%。返还率的计算公式如下:
; p( h6 Y$ E6 w2 _) T  P=AxBxC/(AxBBxCAxC)6 V1 T' H& K& x$ t+ ^6 y
  P表示足球返还率,A表示胜赔,B表示平赔,C表示负赔。
2 H$ l$ ^( _  h  比如,2007年10月28日,英超朴茨矛VS西汉姆威廉希尔初盘赔率为:1.723.204.33* v2 Y) m! u- M" \& s
  P=1.72x3.20x4.33/(1.72x3.203.20x4.331.72x4.33)=88.90%! l$ W  l7 r# c: Y& T. A! |
  这场比赛,荷兰TOTO公司的赔率是:1.703.003.54通过返还率的计算公式,其返还率是83.04%
" ?; ?, I, e8 c  TOTO如此低的足球返还率,竟然也给主胜开出了1.70的胜赔,仅比返还率为88.9%的威廉希尔少0.02。如果威廉希尔对该场比赛三项结果的胜率判断是正确的,我们不妨设想一下,TOTO应该开出什么样的赔率是比较合适的?
4 u, T# p2 H5 T- W6 y  从威廉希尔赔率为:1.723.204.33可以换算出胜平负的概率为:51.69%27.78%20.53%,TOTO应该开出这样的赔率:& q- Q5 T6 z- R
  胜赔=83.04%/51.69%=1.61; I' u, j" M3 y( L0 ~- n
  平赔=83.04%/27.78%=2.99
7 K) z! p# d; V6 ~3 L0 f  负赔=83.04%/20.53%=4.04
) w- N; c# n$ N* j: @  很明显,平赔最接近,负赔低开不少。我们可以这样理解:威廉希尔和TOTO都对主胜不很看好,对平局意见基本统一,对客胜,威廉希尔不很看好,TOTO则担心客胜。字串5, T8 q* D: d: q- J: J$ K
  这个客胜的判断差异,我们究竟相信谁呢?& `! |/ O8 L) V+ c* }8 q; p
  我们再看威廉希尔后来将负赔调整为5.00,韦德更是调到5.50的高位,因此,我觉得TOTO看好平局是真,大幅降低客胜是假。
. B+ p5 S# q0 m) ~  本场比赛,最后0:0战平。6 l  F3 m3 b* P# P* a
  我们再来看2007年10月20日,国米0:1负罗马! L' Z8 V, H( k2 X; ^6 E3 X% i% _
  威廉希尔赔率为:1.723.204.33对应的概率是51.69%27.78%20.53%, b0 p% m6 n: H2 g4 {
  oddest公司的足球返还率为79.64%返还率的计算公式换算出的赔率为1.542.873.88
- W6 f( V7 b6 k* p. N" g  oddest公司的实际赔率是1.752.853通过比较我们不难发现oddest公司对国米获胜一点都不担心,该公司更加看好客队不败。- E& |5 g1 R* h8 U+ F; M
  通过上面的分析,我们可以看到,如果我们关注足球返还率的不同赔率差异,对于我们判断冷门结果,会带来非常重要的意义。2 @# d* @" u3 ?4 ~- c7 ~
  当然,必须声明的是,任何一种分析方法都不可能解决所有问题,我们应该针对问题进行更全面的分析,进行综合判断,这样对于中奖率的提高就会有更大的帮助。
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2#
好复杂的说。。。。
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好厉害的说 楼主精辟啊
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4#
我的算术太水了,看不懂
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