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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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8 q0 e; @  K3 c2 c. I开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72
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1 U  @) V% m5 A  t开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
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7 I* n* d, Y& q& S; I' ^8 }所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
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( C/ A& w) D9 Z) J% w加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;
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; B6 y2 a& F) \; e# A以上,76gor
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,' _/ ]: u# S( Q- J% u/ G

8 l& ]! [+ ]" [* [一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000
  Y/ Y" s) _1 f! @2 D# U2 h+ D7 Y' ]每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152
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3 N7 a1 f0 P. X) N( H, t# p: r假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥5007 A  G% [5 N/ k7 t( u
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每天净收入为:¥6521 o# n# [" m; p# |5 W

8 t) n* N7 N+ [# i$ V年收入为:¥237,980% }! O3 l# }  B) T# w

( v- h! D" O4 h1 q" b. |" C3 b唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;9 O# m, O0 p+ @$ K# k4 S
唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor 4 b: h  A' R7 g: P

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   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?
/ C+ J; T# m5 G; P: z0 UTerrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
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    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,4 y, D* |3 v$ _; o
beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24
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    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;+ p- S. c% ^" d
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:* i5 A4 n! U# `) ]8 \
- M: H/ z: |2 l0 F; e  E0 S2 G
开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...4 M+ m/ x; {8 }9 v9 ~: Z7 t
76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏, A1 \/ U7 r" c5 u" G3 z$ m
大概是1%多点
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! G2 g! N) D, |至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
9 Q7 B: j8 x8 R+ O* |1 |大概是1%多点
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...$ t2 M1 M  Z  J  ?8 c# \
taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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7 c/ p- C7 `! O# H  n4 e    请指教
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楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?% d# U7 w& f! c0 G2 }) n, o
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26
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! K9 b7 C! X1 \1 I1 ]1 \6 u    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor
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" Z. D+ K9 C/ y# b4 P8 B9 D   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor . t% h' ?1 D0 O& r; C+ O7 A
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!# U- _, F8 W4 }5 \  x$ @; ?% d
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30
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    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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