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凄凉！研究显示找到合适伴侣概率 堪比彩票中大奖
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三·八妇女节即将到来，女人和彩票成为彩民热议的话题。近日，有男性彩民表示：现在找个Mrssright(合适的女朋友)比彩票中奖还难！此话题引起彩民关注。/ ~, b' D+ y. Z
“找Mrssright”和“彩票中奖”，两个看似风马牛不相及的事，就这样被彩民放在一起做比较。, b# E$ b# y0 @
“谈恋爱就像在打仗，虚虚实实，让男人觉得头晕！要找Mrssright就像是买彩票，中大奖的概率好低！”一位网友一语道破了“找Mrssright”和“彩票中奖”的共同之处。
. x/ W% Z6 O. S' I" C 都是低概率事件, b2 L |5 O; E* ]# w
在微博上，有一种流传很广的说法：据研究，人一生会遇到约2920万人，两个人相爱的概率是0.000049。
4 @5 E" e3 ]- D) J. U7 U0 X7 E 对此，有人表示，这种说法也许不尽真实，但考虑到人海茫茫，人的秉性各异，以及诸如房子、车子等各种现实因素，两个人若能相爱，的确称得上是奇迹。从概率的角度说，我们都是在期望一个低概率的目标，数字期望值是很低的。" X* [: ?3 ~( b! }
同样，多数买彩票的人都怀着一个大奖梦，不过最终能美梦成真的人却微乎其微。统计数据显示，我国彩市各种游戏的中奖概率差异不小，其中，双色球头奖的中奖概率大约是1/17000000，体彩22选5头奖的中奖概率大约是1/26334。据说中该游戏头奖的概率跟被雷劈的概率差不多。: S8 A. Y$ Q/ {$ Z1 V
可见，无论是找Mrssright，还是买彩票中大奖，都不是件容易事。: f: Z, a0 f. m% T' U. B3 c( @
低概率能否被改变
1 u* r/ e" F% \6 q* U. t$ \ 既然找Mrssright和买彩票中奖的概率都不高，那么有没有可能通过一些方法提高概率呢？“概率是客观存在的。谈恋爱时，概率在前期起作用，后期是主动性在发挥作用。两个人相遇的概率不高，但相遇后一方可通过主观努力改变结果，比如，女人可能在初次见面时没感觉，但男方可以有针对性地通过送花、细心照顾等行为赢得女人的好感；买彩票就不一样了，彩民只有在选号环节可以发挥主动性，一旦投注，概率就发生作用了，中不中奖只能看运气。”一位彩民分析说。
8 L' ]/ `3 S$ ?! o! _ 对于彩票中奖概率能不能被改变，一些经济学家也早给出了自己的答案。2009年时，一位名叫彼得(Peter)的加拿大籍彩民对英国《金融时报》一位写专栏的经济学家说：亲爱的经济学家，为了解决不断恶化的财务状况，我已经开始买国家彩票了。尽管我知道获奖的可能性不大，但我在想，如果我坚持买同一个号码，而不是随机产生的“快速选号”，我的获奖几率是否会增加？' b8 |8 Y/ M8 W; }
对此，经济学家答道：亲爱的彼得，你似乎在脑海里设想了一个相当迷人的情景：你扮演的是一个走丢的小孩，而开奖机扮演的是一直坚持寻找你的父母。这被称为“会合问题”(rendezvousproblem)，一般而言，待在原地让开奖机来找你，会对你更加有利。不过，开奖机不会努力寻找你的号码。它对之前开出的号码组合没有记忆，所以每次开奖，所有号码组合被选中(或未被选中)的几率都一样。 |
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