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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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& e9 y/ ?7 F d" Q( i# O/ D* O西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
5 B6 G7 ?2 ? |4 r; y0 @
/ E! I( |8 c& f; I; z以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:; \: m: l1 h# G5 |9 s ^/ |9 p/ t2 m
& ^- F" \9 e% @4 z4 m皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% + P3 r" F4 Y4 i7 N+ g
* N5 ~) l0 R0 y很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?/ f( x) U& E1 G" K6 l
2 {( m# m' C2 W6 G; ?3 _答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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& Y+ r* n* _+ \* ~0 B7 P以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?1 _% `+ t7 Y' A7 J3 o
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盈利可能性; [6 W) W0 |) h! p8 T; g
0 j* [* t& W( i对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。+ t( L( S1 P# ^+ R: [& Y4 k
, v! }. R8 j' \* j增值5 G7 F$ x; Z$ M/ P: X$ ?
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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& V2 y9 ~& x q* Z5 V- p4 ?" h你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?! s4 m; }% m1 ~' Z
( N1 T1 q! H9 d
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 ' s8 Z1 I8 H; }, b; D
! q2 m$ K3 D9 u# \$ L. ~& f正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么/ C; _5 M3 Y. S. U& [$ j# e
% L- q/ q( Q1 X5 }/ V1 R
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润. U0 a v b+ r! v1 p+ c
60%的机会你会一无所有
9 k% w' d+ H0 z( I2 W$ Y预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
]5 C# t6 b# _, R; K v( Q' G# ?; f3 Z由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。5 r& Z" F6 A% @8 H
9 q l4 Q, |+ N% r; W增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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- l% E# U- u# K1 L( E- ]' n2 c公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)$ d7 g+ z0 t9 @( K& R+ I5 Q
7 e- j) _; i2 E- a2 I* v
A=博彩资金
; q7 c/ } C3 M& x$ V1 u2 ~P=获胜机会9 d; ~ N; V, U% X$ K
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)5 Z9 z2 T \. m
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。' ~: ^4 c4 L! u e- I+ a: e
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。0 O2 I- i( { r7 ?' a1 P
1 O2 a6 W& Y" Q. ~0 D1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)4 v3 s% j9 I6 S2 E$ \
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0: W; J' W0 I1 \' I
9 F5 _2 U& Y0 x0 W$ C结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)# Q, w' M5 T- @1 g
7 S% N. }, m4 R- Y7 a0 EA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
& J' [! T! s$ _, b; t$ `9 ^$ ^8 g5 _: v7 l* _* j8 Q
A=0.1
6 i/ F3 w$ |: W! c$ Q% y0 I" @
7 I- H: x0 h' i% H) B结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)4 K7 R1 g/ U+ ]# r3 Y0 M9 u
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 1 I+ i7 Y @4 ^3 g
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好# y" p) r! f% i. X
/ G: e4 F0 V# M; V+ X第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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