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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。( E! _, M8 \7 [
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率, F* R, k) I9 Q/ t
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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2 B' o' g* i6 i* J b" e皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ( K! L7 J+ g1 c' Y
0 \! p: I8 ?* a+ N/ Y+ x# p% }很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?- N; {% A. Q/ G; b, e! K- e
: d4 ]: A( \# f! [) l( h答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)! H, N# ~: \! P$ t; Y) H
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。/ b( A% O4 S7 ]
8 m! F0 @& C; J增值! p2 g% Y* d: h; n
/ O6 X, M# w& Y+ x许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么& O0 U/ D- b$ M: G2 X4 H8 L
0 d2 h7 S1 z" r: k4 {+ ~& z40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
' X1 A% x' ?$ X7 F- q60%的机会你会一无所有' _' X: [ A$ R" X: b$ A
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 % u) k; Q6 h( K7 S: C/ N9 C M
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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: ]% w* G$ }! O增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。( R7 ~9 \& Z6 k3 ^ X
* S/ k5 a5 t% R- T& \基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金: Q! P7 L1 f O2 J
P=获胜机会 e$ @4 I- @# ^# J( E: f( h2 j
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。; _/ }7 I- Y! s1 {
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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( E8 g- C$ x. l4 ]4 J: }( n$ {) ~1 {A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)+ }, D; U/ s$ B6 O9 Y
2 L: d5 B2 ]8 C6 ^ aA=0
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# X0 ?* L# d; a+ z' @结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)! i, j' S* I' C- q0 E0 B) j$ B/ _) H D
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A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去' L4 Z7 ?) Q; D1 `& ~
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)( e# S9 j. V( q7 S6 B( J
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)" j g) E8 A( e a& c
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A= -0.2 4 {8 s+ X: l0 t1 e$ j3 M4 g& J
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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) `# A. @! O, k第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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