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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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3 U' A1 a! \4 u" ^# x5 H) G7 a1 R( k* b, C# c
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率, \6 ?) j& S+ |
6 N9 ~# W$ ~/ {: O4 Z, O5 N7 n: U
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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) |" z% j1 g' Y$ P8 E; N皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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0 D7 W9 B% K8 O. f很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!): ]6 _+ ^$ n' d- K. p5 m
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_0 e$ D+ w0 Z e/ m以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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+ `: k, p% D+ O! A/ V盈利可能性/ q9 N7 n+ n4 _
/ Z/ R; k3 F: V' m" C% r对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。& f l! J2 T4 _$ W7 k
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增值
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' a8 s) d' N2 \0 w [; t. d R' k许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?5 a; \: ?( t1 I) b& t
, c9 ^9 T2 {% y8 q' Ra) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
4 b4 v" M- t# l* W& P( G
" H3 I: W, j5 w. [正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么4 B7 D0 U) D2 U, J
* N$ p* T7 P% ^+ f. t% p7 L40%的机会你会收到150元的利润8 m3 H1 s1 a) C! N
60%的机会你会一无所有0 K- h. {$ K3 |3 K
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
% J# h' D) I6 p* V4 C由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。8 O7 F: b/ O3 ~5 H
% V. o3 a1 a+ T6 ?: w/ B基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)3 x1 |1 V V; U P8 [6 }
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A=博彩资金
, r' n- ^) c9 Y- hP=获胜机会% o5 {5 o4 ?0 s2 J I W
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)0 s3 v" F D$ |& \$ z
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。( c# ?5 I: {) k4 q: G- l# ?. N7 f
0 j# V1 s; N( B9 ?: l' G- c好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。4 m9 }+ ]9 x# ?! M6 B1 o/ n
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)- p7 T+ x3 I1 L
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)( t+ [& a7 R, F- k9 g1 m y
- M/ D( m% ]0 @7 n8 tA=0( t I3 j% L! y! O" D
* l. q3 H2 m' f# Q ]结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1
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5 J; q1 b# }. v8 X9 H+ c结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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0 ~7 o' Z. D3 k5 E, y' J3 I' U3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)2 \* ^) z2 K& O
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A= -0.2 0 z9 [3 Y" U) e( `5 ^% u
+ H# ? `% M$ E# S% w结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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|. j1 G! o( G4 F$ i4 [! ]3 O第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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