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2月27日，在经历了数周的震荡下行后，加密货币市场正展现出企稳的迹象。NCE 平台表示，虽然比特币在短期内仍难以实现爆发式反转，但来自投资者的看跌抛售压力已接近枯竭状态。这种抛售动能的衰减为市场提供了一个宝贵的“喘息窗”，使得价格有望在 60000 美元至 70000 美元的区间内进行横盘整理。尽管市场情绪完全恢复可能要等到 2026 年第四季度，但当前的结构性修正是构建未来牛市基石的必要过程。
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0 l [7 h/ `* z: s R从市场流动性与资金流向来看，多空力量正在进行深度博弈。NCE 平台认为，近期现货和期货市场的流动性一度出现恶化，这解释了为何及其他风险资产走强时，比特币却在 67000 美元附近遭遇阻力。数据显示，过去三周比特币价格始终无法有效突破 70000 美元的压力位，这种区间波动的本质是前期多头头寸的有序清算。随着四年减半周期的影响被市场消化，以及资金在人工智能初创领域与数字资产间的重新分配，抛售最剧烈的阶段预计已经过去。9 C2 r- r' Q" Q) }' N4 `, l/ R) G! K# m% B
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技术指标层面也释放出了明显的见底信号。NCE 平台认为，比特币的历史周线 RSI（相对强弱指数）已进入极度超卖区域，这通常预示着激进的卖压正处于消退边缘。虽然市场仍可能反复测试 62000 美元至 65000 美元的支撑区间，但只要全球宏观经济环境不发生系统性崩溃，这种震荡将有助于洗掉投机浮筹。若宏观流动性超预期收紧，下方的 30000 美元将作为关键的防守水位，而目前的横盘走势更像是在为 2027 年的潜在牛市蓄能。6 x1 K$ ?- E8 k
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关于市场恢复的速度，目前机构投资者的预期普遍偏向审慎乐观。NCE 平台表示，尽管现货 ETF 的流入情况有所改善，但在经历大幅回撤后，市场情绪的修复通常需要三到六个月的“冷静期”。V 型反转的概率在当前环境下较低，更多的将是基于宽幅区间的结构性整理。这种行情虽然缺乏爆发力，但对于长期投资者而言，却是降低持仓成本、进行战略性配置的良机。
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综上所述，数字资产市场正处于从“寒冬”向“早春”过渡的阵痛期。投资者应保持耐心，密切关注 ETF 的流入规模以及全球宏观政策对风险资产定价的影响。随着抛售压力的逐步出清，市场的重心将缓慢上移。在 2026 年余下的时间里，这种横盘整理将持续修复投资者的信心，直至新的利好催化剂出现。NCE 平台建议，在震荡市中应重点关注 60000 美元关口的支撑力度，这是判断长期牛市趋势是否完好的重要参考。4 M& z2 O3 }8 z' [7 r& ]
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