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[1754] => 虚拟币存提
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2734 小时
本月在线: 69 小时
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截至 2026 年 2 月，加密市场仿佛进入了寒冬。ETH 跌破1900，今年开局创下历史最差表现之一，较 2025 年高点下跌超过 60%。
( D5 K5 y& y& o ?* `2 N V( b, L& z9 y! T9 C
市场情绪极度恐慌，甚至连内部人士卖币都加剧了压力。5 r1 J: e1 V8 p& [2 k; X) W( _9 ]
一、先说技术面9 p4 A' {$ f1 Y/ ?
这一点也是我在社区反复强调的，K线上我们经历了急跌，横盘，而最近的下跌完美符合预期的最后一跌！
2 k( ^, `7 ?- p而我能做的就是让大家拿住，甚至也来到完美的定投区间，可以参考22年的走势，这是最后一跌！
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; v9 ]: y8 \ I9 A( A二、再看宏观
7 v7 Q* M; l5 A) y4 o以太坊2月日活跃地址维持在55万-70万 （主网），1-2月曾接近/突破100万 新高区间。7日/30日均线仍在上行，证明真实用户和DApp活跃度在增强。
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8 {+ X4 p/ n0 b. S/ d$ c! `2月7日单日交易量达2.896M历史最高，2月22日仍维持在170万 。2026年初整体较2025年同期大幅回升，稳定币和L2活动是主要驱动。, t6 H& e: \0 ?3 ]5 P! v
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# [: W& V8 K/ XETH链上稳定币总供应约158-183B USD（占全球50%以上），2025-2026年持续爬升并创新高，说明稳定币持续增长！
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+ i: f* h \# d8 p1 e交易所ETH储备减少持续下降,全交易所ETH储备降至16.2M ETH（2016年以来最低），2026年初持续净流出。3 p: s3 h4 {; q4 g: u
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8 y8 u( B# G$ t7 U K, M3 t' |6 p所以，结合质押锁定，有效流动供应大幅收紧（约45% ETH已illiquid）, 尽管ETH价格短期承压，但网络基本面在2026年2月正处于爆发前夜6 q# s. p7 k0 |' z# Q; G4 V
三、机构在买，而不是跑
" r( t% V) _$ v0 A; ?& L) E散户恐慌，机构却在布局。ETF 资金流入恢复，企业金库在低位配置 ETH。 传统金融机构持续在以太坊上做代币化产品。
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4 q* c# P3 C& X2 n& f1月整体净流出2.53亿美元，但2月17日单日净流入4863万美元（BlackRock ETHA单日 2289万领跑），2月13日也曾翻正 1026万。
4 v1 y( D; \4 Q% {近期虽有波动，但已出现多次正流入/零流出，累计AUM仍超115亿美元，显示机构在$1900附近开始重新布局。! E0 N) L. r7 C2 h* s
四、2026 年路线图聚焦" J \, E( j) W5 k- B! v
升级方向包括：
. f, z; c' |0 s, r2 H提升 Gas 上限
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增强 L2 互操作性; T& o& M0 `" D; {% D/ q- S
+ K* @8 u8 X( M/ J4 e, W3 D! h扩展零知识基础设施
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账户抽象9 s* R; m! r; x
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抗量子安全6 g, G* S. {" m' Y- L
3 a& B0 Q& k; R7 p( O9 @ Q0 fHarden the L1：后量子密码、FOCIL抗审查、网络韧性测试，V神也强调“不再是UX vs 安全，而是提升安全的UX”
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0 F5 Q3 q- Q* d5 X% ^所以，如果宏观稳定、资金回流，ETH 不需要炒作，只需要被重新定价。- ^6 Q$ R9 }% ?! @7 F
3 `4 m6 J2 ]' d- g- _这不是盲目乐观，我坚信，冬天往往是最大反弹的起点。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 75 小时
本月在线: 14 小时
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ETH 这价位确实有点诱人了，但真进去还得看后续怎么走 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 123 小时
本月在线: 17 小时
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这波跌得挺狠，但看数据好像真有人在默默抄底，心态得稳住啊 |
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