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分析：自 2024 年 12 月以来除比特币以外代币市场已处于熊市，山寨币跑赢市场预期依然低迷
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比推消息，据 The Block 报道，本周比特币突然暴跌超过 20%，尽管此后价格已有部分回升，多家加密基金的经理表示，这次下跌让他们措手不及。Split Capital 创始人兼首席投资官 Zaheer Ebtikar 称：我认为几乎没有人真正预料到，这种程度的恐慌性抛售会来得如此之快。多位受访者的共同观点是，问题不在于某一个明确的单一触发因素，而在于市场崩塌的速度之快：情绪迅速转向，恐慌指标飙升，大量现货抛售引发连锁清算，形成了级联式下跌。
L1D AG 联合创始人兼管理合伙人 Ray Hindi 表示：许多传统金融（TradFi）相关主题在 1 月期间变得明显过度拉伸、且交易拥挤。随后出现的剧烈去杠杆与回撤将冲击传导至加密市场，而加密市场至今仍在应对 10 月 10 日清算事件所遗留下来的严重、尚未解决的结构性问题。他认为，此次下跌也反映出市场的结构性清理过程。这种洗牌有助于清除过剩，促使真正有用的项目脱颖而出。
Pantera Capital 普通合伙人、负责公司流动代币策略的 Cosmo Jiang 表示，近期的波动是过去数月累积趋势的一部分。他指出，自 2024 年 12 月以来，非比特币代币市场实际上一直处于熊市，并将今年迄今的走势描述为滚动熊市在大部分山寨币市场的延续。由于风险资产压力扩散，卖压加速，迫使那些此前转向贵金属的交易者为满足保证金要求而出售加密资产。
对山寨币跑赢市场的预期依然低迷，大多数投资经理表示，市场正转向优质、以基本面为驱动的投资。Wintermute Ventures 的 Joscha Kuplewatzky 表示，市场目前可能已处于周期后期，不适合整体押注山寨币跑赢。他认为，除非散户重新活跃，否则任何上涨更可能只是短期的、特定板块的行情。此外，多位投资者表示，加密货币不再是新资本的首选。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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