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[虚拟币交流]
通过 Polymarket 对预测市场的深度洞察及观点定价的本质（转）
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这篇文章将深度剖析去中心化预测市场平台 Polymarket 的兴起、演变及其对全球信息生态系统的潜在重构。1 }6 y! L8 f2 o+ q8 {+ ~
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我将尝试着解构 Polymarket 如何通过从自动做市商（AMM）向中央限价订单簿（CLOB）的技术转型，解决了流动性这一核心难题，并在 2024 年美国大选中通过“邻居民调法”击败主流民调机构，确立了其作为“真相机器”的地位。# a* I3 G, u7 @! f, S4 I6 E
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% W7 D. z! s( [8 }预测市场真正擅长的，从来不是给你一个确定的“真相”，而是把一堆分散的信息、情绪、立场、利益，压缩成一个随时变化、随时可被引用的“价格”。而这个价格一旦能被引用，它就会反过来影响舆论、影响行为，甚至在某些场景里影响事件本身的走向。6 n$ z3 u2 J; c- i! f( c7 v: A, x
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一、从特朗普当选说起
+ ]% } E2 y0 ^& l! L! @2024 年 11 月 FBI 的探员突袭了 Polymarket 创始人兼 CEO Shayne Coplan 的住所。因为在 2024 年美国总统大选中 Polymarket 以一种近乎挑衅的准确度，提前数周预判了唐纳德·特朗普的压倒性胜利，而彼时主流媒体的民调还在喋喋不休地强调“选情胶着” 。
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$ q4 g4 [5 ]+ p7 o这一举动在加密货币社区和预测市场爱好者中引发了剧烈的震动。这不仅仅是一次执法行动，更被广泛解读为一种象征性的冲突：即将卸任的拜登ZF与这家新兴的、不受控制的“真相机器”之间的ZZ博弈 。Shayne Coplan 随后在 X（原 Twitter）上发帖，语气中带着一种典型的硅谷式反叛：“在那个清晨被叫醒真是令人沮丧……显然这是ZZ报复。” 。
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彼时，Polymarket 已经不再仅仅是一个 niche（小众）的加密DB网站。在 2024 年，它处理了超过 37 亿美元的选举相关交易量，成为全球ZZ观察家、华尔街交易员甚至普通选民不可忽视的信息来源 。它代表了一种全新的认识论体系的崛起：一种不再依赖专家访谈、电话民调或中心化媒体叙事，而是依赖“真金白银”、分布式账本和群体智慧的新秩序。 |
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Polymarket这平台确实挺牛的，感觉比传统民调靠谱多了 |
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这玩意儿还真挺玄，价格就是大家情绪的投票器啊，谁信谁输赢都得看它脸色 |
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Polymarket果然厉害，给自动做市商搞到中央限价订单簿， |
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Polymarket这价格一出来，感觉比民调还准，真成风向标了 |
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