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[lastpost] => 2811969 Solana 受到越来越多的关注,但这足以提振 SOL 吗?(转) 1772862484 舞出精彩
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。
% k9 g4 _5 |3 D6 D. x+ G自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。
- P; ]+ w x* ]2 ] e5 B7 Z" `
5 _# {4 R4 z$ \: \3 S自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。
1 v, b7 f4 H0 t# ^5 p9 ]( r
" \3 \* j! s- I# N阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。 b! _! U$ `! k$ D: X
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2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。/ k9 |5 a0 J# S
9 Q, o' W5 H/ P) d% h5 n那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?3 ~3 t* k7 D: A3 g& ?
; L4 N2 c& Q. N$ t- [/ Z7 D% z0 U) E观察ETF和鲸鱼活动; W' F8 M( V, j4 C( o
分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
9 `$ o5 T" z5 K" b& `9 k8 a5 Z/ z2 {+ {: E2 l7 ^
上周降至1300 BTC。& K' }* o8 m* l x" x
/ a0 i6 \+ ] q
从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。* |9 j5 v; k( R9 x+ W/ I; w6 i
/ W, D1 t2 c& C0 ]# y4 r
鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。
1 L2 l+ h2 m, P! Y6 t+ B ]. H" V6 r4 P# Q5 B- [
鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。2 k. a0 n s1 O/ i
5 t& g& a! g( b7 `! L% J5 d- j7 W
Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。3 { J2 J% j& ?5 y
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尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。
9 @ |- G- V9 x! l& t7 Y* O) t9 p
3 C4 {" E8 [$ E4 V) }- |比特币会突破其区间吗?
* ?/ n# M' b9 e) B随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。
, r+ _' j' Y; o& b9 D- x* z
/ |' l: Q+ I _6 `, _( w根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。7 f1 j4 r+ w- h7 O0 ]+ K
4 S, x, k5 J4 b/ Z" m8 e$ n8 L因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。) `4 U9 m1 ? P" @0 U* {3 A9 f
0 Z8 L$ |, \ E) A! L9 A; W技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。
: V. p8 C6 U; N- h; ]; m* N( u3 g7 I+ a+ U. E% d
位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。
# Y; |1 F2 m- H3 G2 G$ ~然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。
. Z V" N6 n3 p: x& `9 Z8 ^2 {) S& f( R1 h5 n7 C$ ^9 e: _
根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。& n# o; Z' [6 E/ T! G6 |( G7 K' W s
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