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[虚拟币交流]
ARB和STRK将大量解锁应该卖出等下跌再买还是一直持有至解锁?(转)
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有了OTC和Whale market、AEVO这样的盘前平台,目前榜单上的币估值还是比较准确的,买了持有之后就很头疼了。
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例如,$ARB和$STRK都即将解锁大量代币,应该如何处理?是最佳化地卖出等待价格下跌再买入,还是一直持有为解锁的代币提供流动性?9 f. Q$ y7 w, R8 N7 f
2 W5 K- M' G. w+ R3 G看看Optimism($OP)的图表,6月份解锁代币给开发者和基金。如果大家的时机非常准确,在正式解锁前一天出售代币。那么大家就能在价格下跌50%后卖出$OP。1 g6 v% Y) a0 H6 o" O0 X, S- r; o
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因为解锁代币的信息是完全公开的,每个人都知道,所以从逻辑上讲,如果要进行投机,就应该在解锁前卖出代币,然后再重新买入,而不是等到正式解锁的日期才卖出。2 k' h: v& S5 \5 D6 F( ]
# Z3 L) l- S% H( _# |$ g观察这个图表,解锁后会有一个横盘区域是因为基金在抛售导致价格下跌?与比特币($BTC)的图表相比,很容易看到解锁后的横盘区域与比特币的横盘区域相吻合,也是当时许多其他代币的价格走势,并不是特例情况。
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5 ^# l B! J7 L6 B( u! Q. _图片6 R ]0 L( X0 v& w: I6 t
. F: V$ {# B$ }4 y4 h解释了为什么有些基金解锁代币价格上涨,而有些基金解锁代币价格下跌。一部分原因是因为替代币的价格跟随比特币($BTC)走势。另一部分原因是因为基金已经在之前卖出了被锁定的代币。
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举例来说:
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8 ~8 J# h9 a D: Y0 s基金A在种子轮阶段以0.01美元/代币购买代币。该项目在币安上线价格为1美元,所以基金A已经赚了100倍,流动性很广泛以便抛售,只是不幸的是,基金A要等一年后才能解锁。
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6 |+ j/ n0 W+ h1 e于是基金A给基金B打电话。告诉他们项目已经成功,即将进入牛市,价格还会上涨,分享这个机会给基金B。然后基金A以比市场价格低的价格出售被锁定的代币给基金B,比如降价75%,只卖0.25美元/代币。基金A获利25倍庆祝,基金B持有代币等待一年后解锁再抛售。5 H: ^/ S" u; U
5 J/ E6 _' v7 M7 j1 l更有意思的是,基金B会去找基金C,D,E等等。将被锁定代币的价格从0.01涨到0.25,再涨到0.5,0.75... 这种活动经常发生在基金之间,推动了基金购买的代币价格上涨。因此,即使解锁后也不会看到太多抛售行为,有时候基金E可能会以接近市场价格的价格买入。" X& I) `) T n, W. e2 b
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所以,下次看到有基金解锁代币涨了100倍之类的,也不一定是真的。总的来说,基金就像零售投资者一样,有些人通过拉高价格从底部到顶部预测100倍,这很容易。但真正能持有100倍并且依然有大量交易量的人并不多。$ t) _4 }! X9 K% C: Q
+ o+ y. v3 \# a$ f" E, X) y. \所以,根据我的观察:
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: @% N* f, t+ F: K- {- {- 如果在解锁代币当天卖出,很可能是在卖底。市场有习惯在消息出来之前买入/卖出。也就是所谓的买传言卖事实。+ i3 Q1 r7 U( R+ ?
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- 山寨币的价格跟随比特币非常紧密,所以短期内价格波动或横盘走势可以看比特币的图表,同时考虑市场情绪。长期来看,如果替代币是优质的,价格会上涨。
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: P, g |2 z! g1 s G" `- 项目内在因素是否还有吸引市场进入的理由(故事、催化剂、市场趋势),我认为这是至关重要的。社区购买量大于基金抛售量=代币价格上涨。7 F# O9 s T' @# H; y
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有时候,基金展示给社区看的东西可能只是他们想让社区看到的。所以每次解锁代币前我通常会检查这个代币是否还有继续上涨的理由。如果有,我会持有直到解锁结束,如果没有,即使基金不解锁代币,我也会卖出。% }8 u/ s. o1 z) U+ V: F
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如果在解锁代币当天卖出,很可能是在卖底 |
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