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[lastpost] => 2648254 减半后比特币矿工上个月的表现 大部分收入月降幅不超过15%(转) 1715144471 rainwang
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为什么说币圈一定要炒新不炒旧? 回顾2018年熊市...-转载
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回顾2018年熊市,在熊市的第一年,很多项目方和散户一样,没周期意识,还会努力下、坚持下,随着漫长的熊市,尤其是进入熊市第二年,会有较长时间的底部横盘,长时间的底部横盘这才是最磨人的。( w9 i2 @. `( u1 W$ e& t9 h
9 B+ L8 N' j* O+ Q而绝大多数的山寨项目是没有盈利能力的,也就是没有像现在DeFi项目的真实收益(如GMX、ENS这类)。 那么在熊市第一年,这些项目方花钱还会大手大脚,慢慢发现不对劲了,没有了收入,代币还持续的下跌,社区人员慢慢流失,但是项目还需要运营。( p0 {# m# l2 r! X3 h
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如果资金断裂了,第二年就会摆烂,很多项目方会想:那我还不如索性放弃,牛市来了有了新热点继续搞新项目,岂不是更轻松,成本更低?
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& a( Y* B: j% Y7 y0 B9 o我17年18年参与的1CO项目,大多数都是在2019年死掉的,还有一些是2020年没坚持到行情起来,而死掉的。 新的周期,有新的叙事,诞生新的项目。 而新玩家、新资金,炒新不炒旧。/ n/ i/ p# ~ u3 B
D; j+ Q/ H0 k8 N3 \. K4 e比如2021年进场的新玩家,有几个是因为老项目进场的?+ a. j# P( Y1 h* t5 P& w
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带来大量新玩家的Doge、Shib、Axs、NFT玩家压根就不知道什么是BTC、LTC、BCH、ADA等等老项目/ G/ m" W$ S3 w. o1 V
1 x9 R5 S) P: V/ P7 C有一些典型案例:
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' t C( k! ~3 B. |; k/ z17年的国产公链之光:$ ]- }4 D' x9 p+ Q' c) a4 \
& T" J9 e& m# X, W' w2 ALRC、NEO、GXC、HC、BTM、阿希链 当时都是几十倍,百倍币,当时各个都是风光无限。
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经过了18、19年熊市洗礼,这些公链在这一轮基本都错过了Defi、NFT,那些转型不及时的项目压根就再也起不来了。
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印象中这些老牌国产之光好像只有一个LRC在21年11月份表现还不错。2 F j! V2 r* L! V$ B% f* @# B4 `
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而有很好背景的阿希链直接归零了。; @$ H9 H8 B- \9 l5 J
8 v r- R+ W6 |6 z9 q# O; `7 l: I$ I像比原链,曾经17年的百倍币,现在和归零没啥区别了。) G& E2 H. w( K- M: @
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错付了多少的比原教信徒。
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买新不买旧,除了是新资金,新玩家,同时也看具体项目,跟不上行业发展的项目,没有新叙事,就不吸引资金。
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TRX是熊市活下来这一轮表现还可以的项目,价格到现在也很坚挺,就是孙割会蹭热度,TRX生态什么都做,defi、NFT通通搞一遍。 我们这一轮熊市建仓的项目,一定要保证在熊市能活下来的项目,并且每个项目都要有新的叙事,要有故事可讲,牛市来了,自然也会吸引一些资金进来。
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像聊到的LTC,LTC是典型的古典币种,没太强的叙事,我反倒认为像APT的叙事就比LTC要好太多了,就很容易吸引新资金进场。# p' L- C+ J1 I3 l1 t
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熊市我们要埋伏建仓的项目不仅要关注项目方的资金情况,是否有资金链断裂,运营明显开始怠慢,同时也要多关注项目的叙事,一定要保持有故事可讲,行情来了才能吸引新资金。( @$ x7 Q. c3 \! M
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行业的基本面和上一轮不一样了,现在各个赛道的龙头项目都有很好的叙事,能保持到下个周期,比如我们今年重点关注的L2、NFT、AI、GameFi、brc20 板块,将会是长青赛道。
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这些板块的龙头项目就值得埋伏。
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不要信仰任何老牌山寨项目,参与了就保持长期关注,熊市中主要抓大概率能活下来的项目即可。) g, @- I) q$ Q! `1 d$ H
3 a6 [: ^% J; q6 Z& |活下来了就能赚个稳稳的收益,等牛市来了,再用收益部分大胆追热门项目。8 S2 Z, g$ I& v& E
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