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[虚拟币交流]
Arthur Hayes：美国联准会仍会回归量化宽松！加密货币成救命稻草（转载）
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加密货币衍生品交易所BitMEX共同创办人Arthur Hayes，时常撰文畅谈有关加密货币
( J U5 |# j9 ^6 I1 P0 z7 S: K的市场概况，其精辟入里的观点备受许多读者关注，而近日他再次发布长文《Kite or Board》，文中痛批联准会
% V% A6 v. |7 a3 @& V2 x的政策方向注定会失败。. e# d! G$ P) I, [ j# ?
批评联准会提油救火
5 r7 _* i* |& \+ b% _( E: EArthur Hayes指出联准会试图通过提高利率来抑制通货膨涨，但又同时通过缩减资产负债表来回收流动性。然
$ R) T- P6 r/ _* B; t$ ~# ]6 _而，加息会导致美国ZF支付更多的债务利息，其实等于对有钱人提供了另一种财政刺激，而缩表会直接从银行
3 r% ^- a7 c: o0 h& A体系中回收资金，这两种政策的影响可能相互抵消，此举无疑是美国ZF在「割肉来治疗疮疤」。
, q( ?6 r P7 @- K6 b/ c/ K zHayes提到1980年代的美国是可以这么做的，因为据统计数据显示，1980年美国债务占GDP的比例为30%。而今
1 {- }4 }3 o% u; _- r天，这个比例高达118%，这意味着当初的ZF开始收紧货币供应并且让利率飙升时，美国ZF的财政状况并未受$ Y2 {5 f6 l; C, Y$ x" N4 B
到太大影响，因为还没有太多未偿还的债务，如今2023年情况完全相反，现在的债务规模已增加了4倍。
( O. D! Y% M# q* v" m' nHayes表示截至2023年第二季度，美国财政部按年计算已向债务持有人支付了近1兆美元的利息。从宏观层面来5 M. B* e' @1 p; y- p9 Z, I
看，很明显随着联准会加息，美国财政部会以利息支付的形式向富人提供刺激。
2 l9 v& R! `1 {( F恐重启量化宽松，金融巨头关注加密货币
f9 Z' f5 @! J8 o7 O ]Arthur Hayes在文中邀请一位在联准会的专栏作家，同时也是经济学家的Dr.Charles W.Calormiris分享看法，他- U) E8 d. z# u+ j3 [1 X
指出美国ZF可能在不久后重启量化宽松政策：当债券市场开始相信ZF的有息债务已超出可行性的上限时，政0 j5 k/ G. T) g V+ A" g: O
府的下一次债券拍卖会有一个意义上「失败」，即市场对ZF信任不足，对新债券发行的利率需求越来越高，最3 t! q3 X( ^5 g( Y! j
终ZF撤回了发行，并将「印钞」作为替代方案。( J& }7 {# |4 A+ a5 P% z8 L
Calormiris警告：重启量化宽松后，整个金融体系会发生剧烈变化、Arthur Hayes也补充提到「金融脱媒」，由. P' a( n# ?5 I$ E2 t$ ~
于全球又会因降息再一次面临低迷的收益率，所有资金将从银行体系流向其他替代渠道，银行和资产管理公司会2 ?, K9 R6 m3 v+ B/ l
突然热衷于加密货币，因为知道ZF正在争夺他们的存款基础，确保自己持有唯一可用的通膨解药，就是加密货$ g0 h# K- M3 R6 X1 o/ k
币。; \+ F6 n- o8 C: J- |
3 V5 G' p8 h9 G7 P2 E; G3 h |
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