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小分3种情况:7 E) ^2 c# h% ~- k
$ A) h2 M/ f# L/ \
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
7 G& [. ?1 q& |9 S/ w$ {5 w# ?9 z3 U. Z% j J
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
1 I/ U( o1 A, n% U
) z' o/ L$ i/ M' ~: X+ K5 G, w+ G3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。& K4 w9 Z+ e" K1 R; l
6 s. J+ E# f. T$ T! g3 f7 M2张牌8或9点的情况有:) E) h1 L9 V2 G. d
1 q( |5 w' k& o& k: Y; T
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+100 {8 U( W' q2 A( a6 \6 l( d
: M( n0 N: D1 ? p% r1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
2 G6 q3 L3 J& Z) b M; \" K0 s( f: u" V* }
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
: B C% f. a3 [: K; C4 M Q+ G$ J% ^ a9 K# H
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
1 h* U! X: ^! t6 H0 |8 w, n0 _. _0 O7 [" H1 e2 Z& {3 A. o$ T
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
; X; G, C; V; c* d6 g# r6 K
+ q5 H! u$ j7 l( n, Z F通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
, { m6 b2 m: s _8 u$ `+ u0 D2 ? ^- q3 S
那么我们可以得出
$ C* ~( U" A& [/ j Z9 ]0 P
8 v' t* c* K, {1 H% z1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
; o( n0 P' y+ [0 v+ c p
6 A; c" _' S* K( c! w$ u6 A2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 3 j! c9 |! M" _; d5 O
& L) [9 @0 i7 _* J4 O3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491. g. j( K s/ M) q- Y: _
5 k) \7 V/ ^" r5 f. P7 q: }
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
! D E2 L' i' g. j3 G3 I. n1 W1 h6 d1 |; f3 J7 f
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
, Y7 y9 k! \ [ ~) _% R |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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