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[lastpost] => 2761426 闪崩，40亿爆仓！比特币和以太坊，发生了什么？ 1756638284 不洗脸都帅
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" m- l7 l) D! |/ k# T- N( P: C" J干货——BTC挖矿电费成本到底是多少？' b1 Z P% D! A2 p) E. G. }
很多人预言BTC在熊市不会跌破主流矿机的挖矿电费成本，包括著名BTC投资人李笑来。为什么这么说？可能有几方面原因：一是从历史经验来看，BTC确实没有跌破过主流电费成本。二是有一个逻辑就是，如果BTC价格一直跌，跌破主流矿机的挖矿成本，那么这些大矿场就会直接购买btc，这样对价格有一个支撑作用。那么既然明确了价格与挖矿成本存在这么一个关系，我们可以试着探讨电费成本问题。
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" _2 _3 M( H: i( a/ w7 q一、要确定电费成本，首先要大致预估挖矿难度的变化值，这样可以基本确定挖矿需要的电力。因为在相同电价的条件下，电费成本主要由挖矿难度决定。+ m1 Z% m) k% z2 N% p
BTC历史挖矿难度变动情况：
8 d' R+ R5 n& k: `! x' J3 t图片：不会贴图不会贴图不会贴图. T9 W, \! E1 ? u5 k( ?
: Z5 _4 o' t2 P. W很多人觉得熊市挖矿难度也会同步下降，但是sorry，即使在2018年这么大熊市，挖矿难度也增长了近2倍。（难度按照年初首次统计，年中基本呈波动上升状态）
' Y! d* B% `0 ?; k: X8 Q" a好了，那么我们取难度涨幅最低的值1.6倍来测算2019年的难度，测算下来，每期难度平均上涨约4%。这是我们后面测算的假设前提。7 x8 X9 \! ]0 e$ y( R" b2 n
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二、于是我们就得到了下面这个表。
8 `! D y" e5 {+ t图片：不会贴图不会贴图不会贴图8 D1 G; M3 i5 w* ]! c6 m$ H. D
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好了，很清楚了。第一档，家用电的小散，早就关机了。+ ^3 n( m, Q; }. w! K0 y
第二档，普通水电、常规托管电费的，挖矿暂时没亏，但是算上矿机成本也早已亏本。
" F6 }0 S8 o# L+ _/ o: A) w第三档，老少边穷的风电、火电等，如果买矿机的基本也是保本状态，因为按照1台s15每年大约挖0.3个btc，需要3台矿机同时挖1年才能得到1个btc，而矿机的使用周期差不多2年。4 s& l0 |. a! `7 ~- y
很多人还说有第4档，伊朗、乌克兰等0.1元甚至不要钱的电，请问有考虑ZZ、安全风险没，真的去的也是少数。呵呵。$ n N5 Q) \2 A' O/ u9 I& O
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三、那么又一个问题来了，大家都亏损或接近亏损，为啥还有人挖？原来有一群人矿机成本是很低的，比如极寒同学，他们在新疆的矿场，BTC成本肯定不到2万。所以所谓的主流矿机挖矿成本为什么可以基本刨去矿机成本？明白了没。7 E- G4 n Z' y w" X
当然，价格主要由供需决定，难度、算力都是随着价格波动。所以并不是说价格没有下降空间了，如果价格继续下降也是成立的。有什么疑问大家互相探讨。& n% [& a5 Y' C3 o$ I( q8 ~
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挖矿这个概念和虚拟币关联起来，我真是一点也弄不明白 |
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