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[lastpost] => 2645741 【星宝】4月27日投注流水257529元(单日流水) 1714389072 舞出精彩
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很多玩家都在苦苦追寻百家乐的连赢玩法,但是对于连赢的认识并不深入。其实百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略是相通,只要摸清了游戏特点,才能找到制胜方法。; m' ^& k8 `) m) `: d3 n
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一般来说,
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二连赢的概率是25%- y! i9 b* I' S* ?. Q" N1 e& H4 |
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三连赢的概率是12.5%
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1 [$ S" F- ^8 A* n4 Z: g) a四连赢的概率是6.25%
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……
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# N" |7 @+ @1 t( V2 W4 v% b十连赢的概率是0.09765625%( L) k- S O3 J. r, R. U9 i
8 \* z/ x+ o2 y- [- r& z2 Z) R这些概率值是所谓的相对概率,也就是二连赢25%的意思是只连续抛硬币4次之后,会有四种结果,二连赢就是其中的1种,所以他的概率是25%,同样的十连赢的概率也是基于1024次的10次抛硬币的结果组成。
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百家乐的真实概率含义是:$ ?( k( V) J3 \" B3 {; m1 K8 C
4 J; K1 T# ^4 j' U+ l% R假定一个口袋里有很多个球,其中有1号,2号,3号,4号,5号,6号,7号,8号,9号,10号球
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. T0 l$ z6 u Z: }$ K1号球有512个,2号256个,3号128个,4号64个,5号32个,6号16个,7号8个,8号4个,9号2个,10号1个。
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~+ f: m( T9 g5 S% N9 C你要做的就是在这么多球里面每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸。如果你第一次摸到10号球,第一次一样也可以再摸到10次。
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9 O% m& r5 p$ f e+ a! V" c! i# @你每一次摸到的任何一个球的概率都是存在的,除非你摸无限次,才能接近之前提到的概率。概率在个体和短期内是无效的。
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8 }: J+ n0 G- Y4 R$ `另外一个说法是,
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1、百家乐不是每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸,而是每次摸一个球,不放回去,再剩下的球里重新摸。- E f$ F; X/ |5 E) ^
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2、概率在个体和短期内是有效的,牌入盒后出闲的概率是:49.32%,但是随着发出的牌的变化,牌盒内所剩下的牌数量的减少,他的概率就会每时每刻都会变化。
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再把这个概率代入期望值公式,当+EV出现就下注,就会做到平均赢。
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平均赢只是长期而言会赢,短期也可能会被震幅消灭,这时就要算标准差,再接合你获得的优势,按凯利值下注就可以做到破产风险最低,利润最大化。: H5 a* _) f2 [4 o
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对于这样的说法,百家乐玩家的解释是,首先,百家乐肯定是每次摸一球个放进去,只是袋子里的球和你的数学模型一定要配合。
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举个例子,如果你是打庄闲的,袋子里永远只有两个球,每次摸完一个之后要放回去,然后再摸。这个概念是不容置疑的。: F% q5 s3 J; \" j
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第二,因为大数法则和算牌对百家乐的无效性,牌盒内所剩下多少牌,对庄闲的比例不会发生任何的变化$ N* b/ y/ Q. V2 x
9 Y7 X) ^2 G& F7 c4 M; E第三,凯利公式的问题在于:形而上学。
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首先主观假设了一个不成立的底部,玩久了一定会遇到被爆仓的概念,当然任何一种模型都会有爆仓的可能,只是单纯的凯利更容易爆仓而已。研究的方向是多维+赢进补偿,玩过Diablo3就知道在Mp8的难度下,打到钥匙的可能性是80%。
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事实上,你玩的时候,基本上每次都能打到。
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1 x: C4 z8 ~2 a8 N1 L- Y因此,百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略,对于不同的玩家有不同的理解,如何找到适合于自己的玩法和制胜之道,是每个玩家都需要积累实战经验去摸索的。
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