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本帖最后由 笑看人生千百态 于 2021-9-29 16:23 编辑 ( l3 y, O! {( j1 Z! j
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如何去划分盘口开大开小、水位开高开低?如何去辨别大小球盘口和水位与比赛特征是否符合?这些都是分析比赛进球大小的关键问题。我的分析方法分享:% ]5 \9 h: v% F( ]
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一、球队的战术特点
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- \5 S! p3 [- G! | S一般来说,球队的战术风格侧重于进攻,其防守的漏洞自然要多,两队交锋时进球机会就会相应加大,出大球的概率就会非常高。球队战术风格侧重于防守,在进攻时投入的兵力不会很多,在防守方面却布下层层防线,这样的情况下,两队进球的机会就会相应减少,出大球的概率就会很低。
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二、比赛的重要性
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; ^7 N0 Y/ ~9 l4 J I无论投注独赢盘还是大小球盘,都要对球队的战意作出判断,而比赛的重要性就是判断球队战意的重要参数。一般联赛到了夺冠或保级的关键阶段,一些榜尾球队为了抢分上岸则会加大对进攻兵力的投入,这样就可能导致进球和失球的机会同步增加,打出大球的概率比较高。而一些球队为了保住名次,会采取稳健务实的战术打法,宁可少进球也不能多失球,自己没机会进球也不给对方空子可钻,这种时候打出小球的概率就会比较大。再如一些杯赛到了关键性阶段的比赛,两队的实力都比较接近,全场进球数也不会很多,这一点从往届的欧洲冠军杯、欧洲联盟杯、欧洲杯、世界杯、亚洲杯等决赛阶段比分纪录中就能发现。而在重大杯赛的第二、三阶段和联赛的第六轮至中期的比赛中,则往往会出现很多大球比分。4 j S1 S% v+ Q& P/ \2 ?
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三、伤停情况8 \& n8 t6 @. A6 N; i2 |# Y
; Y: Z. U+ W! x9 D; ]当球队核心阵容中的主力球员出现受伤或停赛也直接影响着比赛进球数的大小。如切尔西(微博 数据) 的托雷斯、曼联(微博 数据) 的鲁尼、巴塞罗那(微博 数据) 的梅西(微博 博客 数据)等这些主力射手受伤或停赛,就会影响到球队的进球效率和数量。而当防守的核心后卫受伤或停赛,则会使己方防线受到削弱,而对方进球的机会相应加大。同时,在缺兵少将的情况下,主教练也会对球队的整体战术做出重大调整,这就可能改变球队以往的战术风格,也会对进球数造成重要影响。
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四、球队实力对比
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强队打弱队一般有这样的规律,就是缺少了主力前锋或组织型中场,缺少了进攻组织者或失去完成致命一击的关键人物,势必会影响攻击效率,则打出小球的概率会比较高。如若缺少了防守型中场或后防主力,就会呈现攻强守弱的局面,产生大球的机会就会增加。再就是,防守型的弱队往往排出铁桶阵,任你狂轰滥炸我就来个老虎不出洞,这种情况下如果强队方面存在进攻缺陷,则打出小球的可能也会很大。而当较弱的一方属于偏重进攻的球队时,管他对手是谁,先杀出去再说,这种比赛基本都会打出很大的比分。4 N1 o( A' G$ K W3 V7 x" p7 [
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五、近期进球情况; \2 E! N5 Q0 Y7 H: r# X$ Z% j
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这一点与两队在近期的攻防特点关系较大,同时它也是分析球队攻防状态的重要参考指数。如两支球队在一个阶段内失球和进球都很多,则说明他们在侧重进攻的同时,防守都存在比较大的漏洞,打出大球的可能性就会很高。如两队近期都打出较小的比分,或说明他们都较重视防守,或说明他们的锋线都很疲软,则打出小球的概率会比较高。但是,要注意的是以下几点:如某队在上轮比赛中大比分输球后,往往会在后一场加强防守,出小球的概率就会较大;还有的是两支球队在最近几轮比赛都打出高比分,而这两支球队之间在交锋时,就都会很忌讳对方的攻击能力,都不敢轻易发动大举进攻。而博彩公司也最喜欢在这两个方面大做文章,利用玩家的惯性思维设出圈套。5 b/ _. U- F+ R
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对上述这些常识的了解,有助于我们对比赛的大小球情况形成一个感性思路,如果要想把这个感性思路转化为最终的投注结论,将其与理性的分析工具相结合才是有效途径。
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