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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。; n2 f! S$ i1 ]3 E$ _: S
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2 H* w) s, d1 F' b/ o9 z& U. t( h* g- Q西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
- h/ M/ m; _6 b1 \
! T7 _& b1 H) J- L以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
5 n* u8 f4 Q( q. w, b7 J* p: a& f) O- z/ [ x3 W1 \
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% " b2 k I* v* B, ] r
( V# A& X5 i+ G& U7 f很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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! l' i/ _5 b5 {. R9 B答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)1 @1 B9 r! U' h/ L8 O
8 }3 i5 m c' z r
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?2 g) @) _7 r5 i0 S; ~$ N& g
8 r5 n# }7 S& h
" v( S7 t8 N1 r$ Z$ u4 ?盈利可能性6 d' s$ G5 `2 c3 l0 q8 A& q) C5 S
9 |* g0 v/ Q( T4 N+ [对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。* R6 J" N& [$ z Y
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增值
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0 j' Z+ T+ g5 `, ]( ?( b; \许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?+ U- o- J- V( F4 w8 T# f
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
" V7 g4 O! {; D, T6 H
1 Q) a V; w* v" d. z8 q; [ @9 d正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么3 b8 M; P" F- e0 [' f
5 n# {* y' X1 s40%的机会你会收到150元的利润% Y. t% \! B, F7 u+ {
60%的机会你会一无所有
- Z3 U( n9 Q4 y$ }2 ]预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
- a2 _$ B* X1 C2 |由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。" f6 H* C5 o D; N! e" d
3 b8 V( I* |4 a T7 t, b增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。( ?9 c5 L$ q3 O0 x& F
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基于增值的投注
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. ~( \+ i- r! G2 P, g凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。, o7 a' e& B" J0 T! G$ y f
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)" }3 J# [2 u. v6 `8 Y( D$ `- F
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A=博彩资金
3 |+ B M3 j' r! P. _4 f1 WP=获胜机会% `# d+ H. t4 A7 S
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)3 d, T" i- x; a) V
7 A6 \7 I* B& }/ g9 l/ |首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。# B6 ~4 F. x. v
+ L4 X0 m \: R# g. B) p1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)4 n0 h0 |: \9 t. u
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A=0
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, D j3 ]: @0 T1 U6 d" i5 z6 h8 Y结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
3 R. S0 r- z2 R! ]5 t. h' T
/ n9 [% ?+ |" c8 C0 u% M, E: OA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)" m+ Q8 L7 c: X; d0 }0 l( ^
2 W2 i; x- @+ u
A=0.1
0 D" I7 ]# H& C; }% J6 m* i2 |* D$ {7 B# _
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
9 q% C& x" O; [: Y: w
7 p) S, U9 Z! s" ]2 \3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)1 a) D9 m+ o- \0 O/ w, D. Q% ^0 C0 Y
. L7 v/ v2 R ~. R j( r) tA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)1 W, U$ \5 z N0 L. {
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A= -0.2 8 Y# b' _& ~7 _" M0 O. d; ^
% d" ]+ J2 U( Y
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好& [4 P% K0 \, R1 `
. O. U5 y8 X) d第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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