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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。
3 g. Q- C0 A: h4 H/ |尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。* \; T/ }6 ]9 `
过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。. m9 K6 X i: K% I9 y. C& H
8 u& K% O% h: v/ T e$ t: d6 }其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。
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Adler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:+ v! `# @0 ?' V& g
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“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”2 H8 l3 f( t; `0 i H/ f" T% }" H
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平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。9 _! T7 h5 c. z* m F
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因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。* L* r9 j P- U% z
) X. g' f- Z/ }. q7 x$ B. IBTC 图表暗示了什么" ~" L) z: w2 \* v( G' ]0 t9 @
虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。
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8 Y* P* q! f d. G- @8 ~首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。
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/ V- o( f. E4 P3 g# H* e# J; D* f" _从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。$ G) j# C9 e8 V$ P; I. K; b& `: h
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比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。7 M- u e% T: m- v% e D
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当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。; O' C& q o4 e. C
0 h( l I8 y* ~0 {最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。
5 ~2 T8 R7 n* F& J; ?: N( a2 f$ y* Q
5 h8 z+ d' Q2 R! z9 i5 T4 x: h最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。2 x" w: d) z& d7 Y' _+ B) s
. l- ?/ _1 e1 N$ s; R6 s( x截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。
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4 E. L) g& V, |- a! ?- w( |7 z简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。
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2 c5 y/ Q+ y/ N( v! B如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。- m3 x$ v- A. \* f$ c
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