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[虚拟币交流]
方舟投资：比特币OTC余额创一年新高！长期持币者不卖（转载）
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近期传统金融巨头(贝莱德、富达…)纷纷申请比特币现货ETF的举动，被认为是机构看好比特币的强烈积极信号。& K5 J, d% p: f) Z( z" E$ u) m
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由一向看好比特币的女股神Cathie Wood掌旗的基金公司方舟(Ark Invest)，近日一份报告也作出类似判断，认为机构持有者对比特币的态度已转为积极立场。) b7 c4 b2 ]: r% V" g6 y
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金融机构对比特币态度转为积极立场0 p3 L5 @) X% g1 m
3 a; Y, J6 B, A" n0 {- ~1 L6 f据报告副本，方舟研究员整理了历史数据，条列了三点讯息来支撑此观点：& a d5 X" y7 a
" r {# T2 l7 z4 ^* y/ t* z截至6月，至少一年未动仓比特币供应量达到历史新高，约占流通供应量的70%。
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$ W" A, E5 R. g/ ^3 M- l贝莱德集团对比特币现货ETF的申请加大灰度胜诉概率，基金GBTC对比特币净资产价值的折价(NAV)已降到一年来最低点。( ]& }. s9 O# N/ o9 _1 ?% b2 G
: K% s3 N2 L3 e3 I2 R$ {- kOTC场外交易市场上的比特币余额(机构活动的代表)创下了一年来的新高。
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1 Q! x H, {- o/ d4 _" _简单来说，当前大部分比特币持有者似乎都维持着长期持有策略，加上机构也正为新的比特币合规化产品做出努力。方舟基金对比特币作出了积极判断：比特币被巨鲸持有者和机构的积极努力支持。这些增长表明机构和大型资本配置者越来越将比特币看作是一种资产配置。* _. }! y: `! T- g5 t2 a
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比特币稳站200周均线# I0 _9 ^; M/ g6 l
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而从技术分析的角度，方舟认为比特币目前的价格走势已站稳200周均线，且在6月结束时报价30,460美元，高出200周均线约14%，恰恰印证了机构的积极态度。. m, s/ G$ W$ t
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3 Y, ?0 `7 O% B9 y美国的政策风险不容忽视
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% t: l7 `- x& M不过，虽然作出了一系列积极判断，但方舟基金研究员在报告结尾处也提出了可能的风险。
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2023年截至6月底，稳定币龙头USDT供应量增加25%，但位居第二的USDC供应量却减少了37%。方舟认为，这种完全相反的走势可以归结于美国监管环境的不确定性，因此导致了一些加密货币活动出海。3 r6 m2 ^: V% [9 G
- g+ Q2 q4 v6 {3 g且尽管比特币出现积极的复苏信号，但未来的经济形势依旧不容乐观，无论是从制造业数据还是美国国内总收入(GDI)等重要指标仍都显露出经济衰退的可能。( S) u) ^* z6 c ?$ ?1 o- o2 q
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