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[虚拟币交流]
比特币再度失守3万大关！美国就业远超预期刺激Fed加息（转载）
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虽然近期加密货币市场有所回暖，但美国整体经济指标却似乎仍未有放松货币紧缩政策的征兆。联准会主席鲍威尔也在六月底刚举办的欧洲中央银行论坛上，再次表明「坚守货币紧缩政策」的立场。0 f" A+ r) V' a. ?# r
, Y2 X' P3 N1 q8 j0 {+ U4 V4 u+ q而昨(6)日晚间，联准会官员针对6月的FOMC(联邦公开市场委员会)会议纪要作出评论，明显表达出与鲍威尔相似的货币紧缩立场。) P* x Z: u/ F U4 V4 R( W5 d7 s% H: H
8 U( l, ~' Z2 [ f联准会官员：当前经济形势强劲，暗示还有两次升息
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) N; t5 a' o; y; Y- u0 [/ }0 j5 o5 M据路透社报道，达拉斯联邦储备银行行长Lorie Logan在昨(6)晚举办的纽约中央银行研究协会年会上强调，当前经济依然很强势，需要进一步的升息来降温：FOMC必须贯彻我们6月发出的信号。(当时)三分之二的参会人员预计至少还有两次升息。
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而采取升息则是出于对通膨下降不明显的忧虑，且当前的劳动力市场等指标放缓速度不达预期：我仍然非常担心通膨率是否会以可持续的方式及时回到目标值。通膨持续高于目标值、强于预期的劳动力市场使得我们必须采取更严格的货币政策。! \5 A% Y9 W5 w6 |
6 T& G. }" E( P+ m市场预计缩表结束时间过于乐观
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关于货币紧缩政策，Logan也分享了联准会缩表计划的观点。首先，她认为市场预计的缩表结束时间过于乐观，比她预计的时间还要早。并且，即使在通胀指标降低后，联准会依旧有可能继续抛售所持债券：这将是维持货币政策相对于经济表现立场的举措，而不是为了降低通胀率的刺激性政策。
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" @2 k6 W) m( U l7 q! `1 W" U同时，Logan也表示联准会资产负债表的相关因素目前没有影响到对利率的决策，并且由于逆回购措施，财政部的帐户也不太可能影响到银行准备金。0 I) n) V. q4 j) u5 r
: s R& M0 r0 Y# f3 @3 x) R美国就业数据超预期
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另一方面，美国昨(6)晚公布的6月份ADP新增就业人数增加49.7万人，比市场预期的22.8万人多了近一倍，创下自去年2月以来的最高水平，表示着就业市场依然强劲。1 ]8 ?" c% w f. I, m0 e' O- c
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受消息影响资产市场各类指数急跌，比特币也从今日高点31,500美元急挫，并跌破30,000美元。# s2 b6 \& r5 _7 P
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比特币再跌破三万美元
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3 G0 G- a. z- ^1 I0 m- j' X. eFed官员鹰派的立场、加上强劲的经济数据，加强了进一步升息的可能性，也让美股和加密货币市场进一步下跌。- E% `6 b: r# s) s6 B4 B8 R% c H! H4 {
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比特币在昨(7)日来到31,500美元，创下今年最高价位之后随即快速下滑，今晨八点左右最低更一度来到29,701美元，再度失守3万美元大关，近24小时下挫1.79%。5 a2 B; G6 b3 C3 z: T, b& y9 G
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市场认为7月会议将升息1码为92.4%
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另一方面，据CMEGroup的FedWatch工具数据显示，截稿前市场认为7月会议将再升息1码的概率已升至92.4%，而保持不变的概率仅7.6%。1 Q$ q6 ?; C6 M7 v
" k: l l9 A% h2 z0 k% y目前，7月利率决策公布的具体时间为本月27日的凌晨2:00(北京时间)。+ t1 l% ^% t( ^ P( W0 a# d+ ?
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