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小分3种情况:
: U5 K1 f" h: i, ~* k, h8 [/ q% s5 n9 X" ^
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。8 U o' L2 o7 e
& a' x; b% f7 x3 g" W" j
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。! k. B$ r, F% S; v* ?( `
4 v, r ]& t" X# u0 g+ O* r0 v
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
/ P5 s2 h' n# f, q4 L) L% T' H" @3 _
, k9 x" X3 R+ }! U7 a2 O/ m* O; ]2张牌8或9点的情况有:
1 r5 ]) `+ L% e
" Z* m2 ^5 B5 {# C# z" _( R# T1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10' A4 }" B s! \; k' C
8 U; M) d: Y2 t; A- F1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
- p8 j# j4 q$ x {! F1 [: E; P0 W3 e# C0 A, a* f6 v% M
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
3 ?1 |9 E' n% x8 N3 G- D4 }4 E
8 U, |" p. |; x; w8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
! g! a2 B/ n ~/ \, F0 e0 r( W5 {, h% j# C7 C- m
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
' w7 P: `# R$ S! \6 y. G5 x7 l: ?$ K, |+ B J! [% z
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。9 w# i+ k. ^( m4 a9 n- A
, G2 k# i6 i; q那么我们可以得出
3 `5 U/ W' N# f! @4 f
7 x, H# l% V5 A+ _; h5 ^# h1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662& X+ e4 y& f% M. m' ?- d+ g1 n, z' O
( V6 S& n. ^0 e @* X+ @2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
7 H7 V% c9 l- r( ]& G8 q* }$ |
9 q) }$ ?# _ `: W' B5 e2 {3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
) b J: O% m; ~( C: L
# O0 y; d+ U* B6 r2 c- k所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
7 D" v) Q' p4 H: K% t; e' v0 L% }; t6 d5 c% y) q; J3 r
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
2 R( ]% L( B" | |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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