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[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
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博彩公司的主流阵营也有等级之分,笔者的习惯是将立博和威廉希尔视作顶级、韦德退居其次为二级、365和易胜博为三级。此类方法的要点是:首先对顶级公司的赔率倾向性做出分析,然后再结合二级公司韦德的态度,观察韦德更倾向于哪边;最后再将365和易胜博与韦德之间进行对比,观察他们的倾向性。继续以上例说明:- Y. x" j4 F( Q1 B
立博初赔: 1.50 3.50 6.00 立博终赔:1.53 3.75 6.00$ a7 i9 O& D* c6 ?- U- z! N1 z
威廉初赔: 1.50 3.60 5.50 威廉终赔:1.53 3.80 6.503 n' F. |9 E# _2 b# o
韦德初赔: 1.53 3.75 6.50 韦德终赔:1.57 3.75 6.504 ~$ s. ~0 h1 r- q7 u# L
易胜初赔: 1.55 3.50 5.80 易胜终赔:1.60 3.70 6.201 {0 m$ I: a8 R; S8 o5 f4 i
365初赔: 1.57 3.75 6.50 365终赔:1.57 3.75 6.507 E, M! [4 y2 M$ A
分析:韦德国际在初赔持有观望态度,进入临场阶段,当顶级方面对胜平负作出调整时,韦德在提高主胜赔付方面跟进力度较大,而对平局和客胜则采取不变的应对策略。那么,这个阶段可以做出的小结是:韦德在平局和客胜方面有所考虑。再看三级公司的态度,易胜博和365在初赔阶段主胜高于韦德和顶级公司的赔率水平,其中易胜博把客胜压的最低。 S f6 x9 \0 x6 S7 W" X& K
进入临场阶段时,易胜博对主胜提升的幅度高于所有公司,虽然客胜提升幅度也不小,但是却处于韦德和365之下,而365则始终默认着初始态度不做任何调整。1 C2 I. k. l" f& s; P0 j5 @
为了更清晰的了解主流公司间分级对比,下面再举一组案例说明。?' Q* x& F8 m' w+ o1 l
波尔多2-1奥林比亚高斯$ M: t9 r/ w0 h; A# p; p0 a
时间:2010年3月18日 欧洲冠军杯小组赛0 r: Z1 h5 o# r4 _1 [6 X0 `: S* X
立博初赔:1.53 3.50 5.50 立博终赔:1.53 3.75 6.50" T( p% q, Q0 y. z( F
威廉初赔:1.50 3.60 5.50 威廉终赔:1.53 3.80 6.50! \* l, i& M% e3 Z( B6 s9 ?9 @
韦德初赔:1.53 3.75 6.50 韦德终赔:1.50 4.00 7.00
* v. r+ Z2 d1 x% Y, X5 \ 365初赔: 1.57 4.00 6.00 365终赔: 1.53 4.00 6.50
5 h% v" V' Q1 |& K5 t3 g- f 易胜初赔:1.55 3.50 5.80 易胜终赔:1.53 3.90 7.00?
3 g/ V3 \2 k4 r5 C- E 分析:在初赔阶段看不出顶级公司之间存在明显分歧,威廉希尔胜赔还略低于立博。二级的韦德初赔阶段即在平赔和客胜方面高出顶级公司很多,初始态度较明朗的否定了平局与客胜。365初期的主胜赔率较高,但是平局和客胜也处于较高水平。易胜博平局数值最低,似乎对主队能否具备绝对优势抱有顾虑。
" I2 @& `1 J9 { 临场阶段,只有威廉希尔一家调高胜赔,而此举并未得到其他公司认可。韦德等主胜一致向立博的水位靠拢,根据立博在胜负方面的权威性来判断,在客胜和平局均被调高的前提下,博彩公司看好主胜的倾向性基本可以成立。而最终主队2-1小胜也验证了易胜博对双方实力定位的正确性。
4 P! x, B; z4 Y% ~ 针对该方法,经过大量赛前分析和赛后复盘,总结出了如下几种对比定义:$ y. b8 X- v2 V9 c. F8 p3 g
主流公司的赔率只是制定了赛事的赔付标准,并不能作为庄家的共识来看待。" {: l- ^/ t0 J- b
各级逐次对比,找出更在乎局部利益的小公司的倾向性,可以形成赔率倾向的基本结论。
, z h( T% p4 _' ~ 立博如在某项得到威廉希尔的共识,注意这种共识一定要是动态的,如立博临场降低胜赔,威廉希尔也随之调整甚至动作大于立博,则该项打出的可能性很大。( y0 ]8 Y9 z. a& w% [) A' e. i
韦德国际初赔阶段与顶级公司的对比很重要,该公司往往在初始阶段即从赔率上有所倾向。韦德公司临场阶段对两家顶级公司的倾向性也很关键,其支持力度较大的一方打出的可能性较大。* a E/ I/ F( r( T- g' j1 d, ]
365和易胜博与顶级公司和韦德的对比应是交错的,即首先要观察这两家公司与威廉、立博之间的对比关系,然后再去与韦德对比,终究该两家公司目前在实力和影响力上并不逊色于韦德。! c' H. @9 t" I# F0 l7 I
小公司的盘子都较小,最担心的既是受到市场挤兑。因此他们的赔率水位往往比较保守,一旦出现冒进或者超越主流公司时,则该结果的实现并非是他们所担心的。
8 z }: H [2 d 自韦德开始的各家公司,临场出现变化的一项如不高于威廉或立博的初赔水平,则要注意该项结果打出的可能性很大。 |
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