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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

; V4 a: d4 s$ {( j2 s
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
! Z* Z& i1 ^  |% Q& P10A23456789
4 w& k: O3 O: G  w1 w" M-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
4 ^) |. Z; U  `-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
! @0 ?) m" a* r6 f6 x-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
8 Q) z- ]3 Q  H$ q4 e2 u-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120& p! ~/ l1 D, w, N7 Z  r- u2 q
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108% m: |; S1 B. e+ d0 W
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
% j- s* U3 J9 r$ x-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085% l7 Y5 }3 {; S$ A9 n3 U
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074# x9 V! T% G+ B; o4 r- W
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064% L0 |( T. C$ [0 t
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
5 j+ U, e  I7 o( R6 r( {. J2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045; h( S+ d+ a! a& P+ b1 U
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
5 @1 A/ N% J, A$ {' I4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.0284 E" p8 B; X* J" j
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
  y6 w0 u% y/ [+ y6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
; O/ E2 s2 C+ E1 I' r7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007% M0 i( R- r5 I  ~. Q% R4 o6 z$ C
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001
2 p5 t4 n2 f0 k! C  E' M( p4 ~  o9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.9962 k7 P+ c  G3 R) X8 A3 Q1 @
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.9925 A* R) D% B; k- b% R0 y$ Q
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
2 J$ L$ l! S! A; t12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985: X, F5 K8 T4 x3 B
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
+ D6 X0 N0 Q9 v: |14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
2 r( L8 d3 Z& X) {; M' f" i15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
/ r( h8 F0 N, l' r16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979/ L- w6 J0 ^. t9 w: |8 E
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
/ m- d, r1 h+ k+ N: g) u18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
$ U+ g# D  W% g19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
; G0 M2 x2 R& G$ C* p0 a20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.9834 w- w& H6 ~2 ?9 o/ c% \  o& p
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986" X; J$ B0 v4 h
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989- R5 h+ B) A% w3 E$ P# H
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993$ d! L' B% ?# P' @) ~
24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
# O$ N: U* p) w+ E% G25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002$ z: k# p) n; `: V

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

6 D( I+ O7 v& X' k: v) G1 c
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類9 Z; E3 \4 A; X% d& q  ]0 A
10A23456789$ Q: e( ?( {8 [
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
9 x. B6 f' ^, j+ H9 O3 R-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.0824 H( U+ N. A. e: M5 y8 d) z! G; ^
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069. Z8 ~; a$ B  A5 b* M" U. |7 f
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
: P7 t4 \+ z9 S# K9 {; \-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
( }+ j1 o( T2 ~+ a7 b; k3 Z-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032' z, ~# Z( {% U7 F. J
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
; B( y7 {. ]  a5 ~' g/ ]* k  u9 }. b7 Z-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.0107 y1 E) }4 U( i( _: @* e5 x
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0002 @, ]% n, G" y. m$ J
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
# m& X9 V5 ^) _/ E! v) d' T2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
5 T% }) s  a  i; ?, K+ }" c* u3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
# y. e4 a7 ~- {& f4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.0360 U5 T0 c# ~( m# d/ ?
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
+ {8 [6 C4 X6 O7 _& Q" z5 I7 b. X6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
' L4 [2 e8 I" w) s7 O7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057
0 @2 a8 b8 W: D8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063  I  f' A5 g! t* f6 K* L
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068, f2 x5 P, o5 C6 v
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072, I; G0 {/ p2 I' O0 |
11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
) Q# P7 {) p( z# _12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
  ~  ?" ^# f# C# K13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.0825 @) x, F# K2 v+ u: j* r
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084' P+ x; n. H' s0 [# v
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.0857 ~/ ]0 V2 n8 i3 N; `1 L5 `) o
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
2 R2 v8 X3 L  n" `$ c17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085# J3 z5 |9 v, w
18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
" Q1 m2 Y3 Y8 x0 Y, `: p19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083% P4 V2 B) T: f, U* Z
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081# b$ g/ N( F2 F; ^
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
1 u, y" r1 f/ K22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
5 I' F0 \& a! q4 t2 f23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.0715 o+ h/ c1 X4 h% O  R: A# m; _
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
* n6 v: S7 J3 ~" S- d# H% Q( h& ?25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062" Z. B9 v/ M% V9 ]

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


) P& A9 r* b: H押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類2 |, b& u" e; m( L
10A23456789
, ~- z. _, ^$ o: V3 Y1 A-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122) |$ Z/ Q! s8 W' t- U3 I4 e
-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137" ^6 o( Q$ c' \: [
-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
6 U, \6 P/ Z3 p/ a7 t-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166, f3 W) ]. C# d5 A7 H
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
3 g3 @' l( Y# [+ u% m-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
4 {- j2 t; r+ X- m-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
& s+ }8 y7 R9 y3 Q-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
4 D! @; k" M, B  |& X0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228  @6 ^+ g' b) n* G
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.2395 l7 @" v2 P+ v  X6 y/ [1 W- m
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.2497 W! @7 V& D" `: w! k9 d% W  k
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
6 a. C; ^% r- F0 d% j4 }! E* W0 O4 C4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
! _1 s$ L* i8 F) ^5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274
; k/ ]6 h) I' |3 g0 [2 ~1 a6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
/ ^' \; c1 N9 i% o$ y: y/ n, B7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
- Z' r, e  w* k& p8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293% s' M) o- J9 h5 M6 O6 x3 H
9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.2988 v1 n, \1 n" R
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.3027 F' U0 \- i' s
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
2 d0 x) A: e" ~7 E5 ], J12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308% r  B# Y% b6 g6 h0 r
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310$ `2 V  h2 {$ x" G+ W- Y
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
" e! M" s' x) ^: \- L1 t15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
$ A9 E* o2 }+ W- J16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311* o0 K" k' n6 {' [; `: F0 T
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310. t* y( g1 g1 h2 g7 \! v9 g) j
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308, F+ @* \2 @( ]* z
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
( _- l, x9 s9 W; u: s9 q0 x! b  t20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
8 \: X: @- B* P# `8 B' L21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297/ G" h5 G2 _7 d& w; t5 L
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292$ V# R+ D$ y1 l& [# [6 A
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286! R& I+ @0 `$ }- @
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.2792 l1 D6 d. T( A2 a0 F# d2 c
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272  k. @" N+ {5 e6 y0 `

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
avatar
7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
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6#
似懂非懂………
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
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{:8_317:} {:8_318:} {:8_319:} {:8_320:}
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
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