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[体育菠菜心得方法] 浅谈足球赔率分析的正向思维与逆向思维
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相信大家对赔率都十分熟悉,都有自己的独到见解,但常常又在错与对之间徘徊。我也是这样的,不过今天一觉醒来,回顾自己一年多来,自己赔率分析软件的开发和完善过程,突然有此感触,希望对大家有所帮助。8 ]/ z7 D( Q. ]6 G4 c* B$ c# \
我所说的正向思维也就是正常的看赔率之前的球队分析,即收集球队近期的相关资料来判断比赛的赛果。其中我认为比较关键的是球队的攻击力(进球)走势图、防守(失球)走势图,这些都是比赛赛果十分关键的东西。
1 i+ p( A' |0 r逆向思维也就是正常分析中的反向思考,球队如果近期状态十分突出,那么我们应该冷静想想,它什么时候会回落。同理,球队防守(失球)也应该类似方法思考。当然这其中有长期观察思考的经验和窍门。比如有些强队本赛期获近期一直很稳定,起伏很小,而有一些则有一定的起伏,有一些则起伏比较大,我们应该仔细分析造成这些状况的原因。比如近期的阿森纳、不来梅、汉堡。阿森纳在联赛前期低迷,本人认为是纵多国脚世界杯的后遗症,反弹后进球走高,达到临界点,后回落(被埃弗顿逼平),球队稳定性欠缺;汉堡买出大量主力后球队状态很差,小胜后不能掩盖失去大量主力新球员还未磨合好的事实(这些都可能给赔率公司做文章);而不来梅是个疯子球队,疯狂的时候进球明显走高。多注意这些球队的情况有助于我们分析赔率。  y6 b  d4 b+ |0 s) x. ?
结合到赔率分析中我们在分析这些资料后,看赔率就会清醒很多。比较稳定的球队,赔率公司一般开盘会采用比较稳妥的方式和采用大众博其下滑的方式开盘,这时我们要正向思考主队和客队球队的攻击和防守的走向,逆向思考球队回落期,正确看待赔率的指向。比如本赛季的曼联就是属于这类球队。而有起伏的球队在分析清楚起伏原因后看赔率就能事半功倍,本场比赛前这些原因是否还存在,客队是否有能力冲击该队,比如本赛季的阿森纳,本赛季低迷后反弹6场比赛后,冠军杯输了,接着联赛又大胜,然后上周六对阵本赛季一直比较稳定的埃弗顿,大家都看好阿森纳借助主场大胜,赔率公司知道大众这种心态,赔率也是这样开的,可开赛前投注高峰期前,我的赔率分析软件显示,此赔率和凯利指数下,主队有隐患(有比较大的比例平和输),说明球队不可信赖,相反本场利物浦的情况则相反,分析显示该场赢球的比例一直保持较高的比例。大家没有分析软件,我建议大家多观察一些开赛投注高峰期前有变化的公司的赔率和凯利指数的变化,从中我们能够发现些东西。" {' R; W) l) d
中游球队和一些弱队大家就要多注意球队的起伏了——进球走势、失球走势,希望大家不断保持球队分析,不可只看赔率,因为球赛95%都是真球,博彩公司控制风险的能力强于我们而已。
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10#
就是如此,感谢楼主
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9#
谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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8#
谢谢楼主的心水,顶一下!
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7#
新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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6#
谢谢楼主的分享,向楼主学习学习
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5#
:运动投资没有必胜的比赛,就像股市没有明牌。
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4#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
:运动投资没有必胜的比赛,就像股市没有明牌。
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3#
认真学习楼主心法
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2#
要好好补一补这方面的知识
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