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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。1 I2 g3 D5 q1 @. y5 }

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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率3 d) F0 N' ?0 @1 `+ [- h

& k: T6 U' r! t% r, ]以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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/ P) K% @) S0 B5 r5 f皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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9 k! U5 n% x& e" A( [很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?0 S$ x+ x/ v9 E) @# x6 G

3 h( M( O) F( J8 u答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)9 L. ~; Y, n- G, I. ?! S

7 N0 n( D  u6 M1 S1 d' b$ W) [: t6 U7 r, X. w# ^/ [; a6 q, t
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性( K1 P: I# R: s( _, I, q2 b
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。& {: l. Z" v  Z# M7 u6 a0 N$ P, t

; k" C( R* i( ?( N, ?% o5 _6 D5 F增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。- T2 x- z9 u  H' l) P8 V. e& }

1 k3 t3 g5 W  |$ f3 J. }" \你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?$ p& d# }6 A; Q  }1 Y! y( ?

3 v- }$ C2 E0 J+ R( T  va) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 & W3 H1 t2 k5 N; a4 @' K, D
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润$ _. B' B2 j+ H& B& N3 F; r* p3 \
60%的机会你会一无所有
% M: l  ~, {7 i, H! r8 B/ t, ]预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
% Q8 T  d9 A" c  ^# D4 P2 i" x由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。- e3 a& J& [7 G7 q
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。5 ?# r2 e  Q; D. @# C, T

, r5 P0 L, j( v/ s1 p( r基于增值的投注8 q7 j' C$ f% j# A; w; F7 u

* ^& I. C2 S+ l7 D' b8 R凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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, x$ z" E# a  ]9 F. l  Y公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
# |9 B& p: O% b% [( o0 v  C& kP=获胜机会6 ^" ~/ y6 E" ~9 ^& W
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)' m/ d  |: v% M+ C# y7 w
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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+ w" b0 }' @- P  F0 Q" n1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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9 N  C: a9 }8 n; GA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)& Q( x; ]! ~" t1 g
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A=0( s6 V8 E' a# u( q7 L
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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. N5 G& T( h/ c* T1 a$ x4 [A=0.1' v4 s. f, S( k; p  w
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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0 [7 W# G' q! o. I7 z3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)$ ^/ u" c% j" ~( ~5 H* e
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A= -0.2 $ S, q3 f4 _" L- W! D" \

. v& A4 U4 _: o1 k9 D结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好+ _2 i3 T+ K5 b8 _% ?8 N' i
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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