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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。6 {( K6 S Y6 x! c# m3 T: R v% u
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: ?. |) ]) p% @) O, O+ T6 O2 |( r西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
$ _1 l) g2 T# O4 A- x; Q o: q0 L# G- `; n9 A
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:: n& Q- ?, I* \5 r; H" a
) A+ Y* S" H5 J& W7 Y皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ' R. ?1 f) R7 [1 }
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?2 O* T% ] c- _) J( T' x4 U. \
3 H, j+ n; u2 I) }( E
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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6 }# H! i. q3 @* }以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?1 L$ s; s4 l- n- E
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. Y" q9 l! I% z+ {4 U! A Q4 T, F- x盈利可能性# W! W4 x( S# X& r' G+ m
8 e2 v* o! T- \3 I. }9 @8 ^; G: S对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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* g- X# a0 [( D; k3 M% {增值# l3 Q+ `# i" l) a8 b) s0 G
* ~4 N' u# r5 h许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?" u+ m% k# g R* k
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 # D9 N" Z( Q0 f/ k. I' k( A9 Z5 {7 R
5 f" V, s% f9 p2 x! C ]4 ^9 m正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润) n; x! N+ c; U% \% g- {
60%的机会你会一无所有. Z1 l; s& \* L2 Z/ T. t
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 . M+ i: N4 ?$ k4 G( y) f0 d
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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, a& D g n( Q \" G增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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4 w! V4 }+ ]% k- ^凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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* m, r: B9 l6 \5 _3 g; M; g公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金 c. D; Y3 S4 a; ?$ s. i: W
P=获胜机会) j X$ N' Z9 z& v4 q
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)! k# g" T) R* s0 P
% g' _$ N$ Q" T8 d) V1 d首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。1 k% s5 U8 ]: P
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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9 E9 `8 N6 H/ D) b! {A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0$ R) x" D3 h6 y: }2 i K: n
$ x1 g( [; y T6 M' m2 }: }结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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/ U, i' n7 B$ j" S3 K5 L+ C% x2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)& {7 z1 `# e6 G
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1# v' H8 h+ n g4 ?
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去. |0 A7 F1 L- R3 l2 A- D& v
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2). j8 n" b9 Y* q; E
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)8 p& e- w' x! G; T% p- i3 T9 I
" B$ k6 B. Y8 P" n) F# hA= -0.2 ) k" C* b1 V" J4 g+ \% j
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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