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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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& b* f. H; x4 r* ? a' x' W0 K# ~% ~$ ]/ O0 |, ?
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率1 ^+ b) g+ Y0 ?# \
% R, G6 ]+ M3 N' ?1 \' w
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:/ B) }2 s7 e6 g% ^
0 W, I+ ^' K, R( e& F# Y
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 0 x Y5 M+ @ r' W
) k# q! `; _$ t
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?, _+ j* B3 I; q6 ~
2 v/ z4 M9 g/ x; n2 `- y答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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& f# u0 H. `6 H q7 \1 H! Q1 b3 O8 J2 D" M/ M% m5 d9 D
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?; l2 i m" `* y7 Z
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盈利可能性- c9 k7 M4 f- V, G
+ u) s! n4 }6 N7 b! Z
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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' q6 G! r; V% O2 S8 W增值
% Q ~' Z1 `8 Z w+ {$ W! O+ m) [1 {/ z6 C" }
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。& n9 H) P# X, ]; b
* w3 K8 K3 I1 H! j6 a; R" i4 D你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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2 j P: ~7 H0 k: V+ h$ ra) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 9 J! q7 U+ X& Y+ Z+ g
5 r' H1 Y7 [( h3 U2 K$ ]- ]
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
& B" z, |4 E% P1 {4 X0 H( W9 b. s% g/ c6 D! |$ X# N6 b
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润* v- } d* @7 F7 D) E8 h) X7 R1 |
60%的机会你会一无所有" a0 I! a! c( k* j, h$ } W
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
. K9 L+ V, F* u8 H1 m由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。4 D* H: H2 I, |8 Z, [; n
/ k$ j/ P9 ~' s8 X' ]. n% E: a ?
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。$ `3 O! G5 V. d
6 ^- n, Y7 c( H! @3 }: D# r) S基于增值的投注
# f D p. P; l" C3 [
R+ s( s# j" ^( e. y凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。6 e7 F( N$ l; j* {
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1): o0 I0 P+ [" ]$ X$ m
% b( ] P5 X/ l% P5 bA=博彩资金/ ~/ L% ?/ h2 `& x" c! k
P=获胜机会4 {: L1 A; O% N* u
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金) r. P8 m- S1 x3 K, p; K9 {
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。2 M- s6 f. E# A D; A' m
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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4 N, E h s* X. Y: m1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)* j, J7 u9 S1 _( F& T- _! s
7 ?: U) H1 U% z* E5 u1 uA=09 z( i& _4 A8 ]
0 A% Z# G, H7 S! _3 D6 a4 D结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢4 U4 {9 w/ {% h1 L+ m
* K% s5 q/ T/ i5 m% n+ q
2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
+ G& M6 }* x+ ~) H$ ^/ j Y E. J# `8 f" R8 x& f9 m' \) C
A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去8 ~0 l( \7 Z% l1 C W1 g
& ~ h0 X3 x; T$ _8 v& Q5 L3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)6 t/ W% H6 b0 B+ t; s) l
6 f; q& z2 `( d! hA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
: u' u* j- z7 J7 e9 r8 C! ` L6 g
A= -0.2 2 G6 p1 C! d( q# p) Q
! s- [8 W k# |/ |结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
# E7 h) x% {5 w; P1 l/ S: d! q6 p5 X1 Y' K2 T
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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