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[lastpost] => 2808960 比特币暴跌加剧：散户难以消化28.1亿美元的资金流出（转） 1771980328 sunnyclare001
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2735 小时
本月在线: 70 小时
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截至 2026 年 2 月，加密市场仿佛进入了寒冬。ETH 跌破1900，今年开局创下历史最差表现之一，较 2025 年高点下跌超过 60%。
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市场情绪极度恐慌，甚至连内部人士卖币都加剧了压力。
6 H/ l- z! w G- H. B一、先说技术面
; h4 i" m0 w( }' l n( L这一点也是我在社区反复强调的，K线上我们经历了急跌，横盘，而最近的下跌完美符合预期的最后一跌！
" L5 I4 B* o( {1 l, C而我能做的就是让大家拿住，甚至也来到完美的定投区间，可以参考22年的走势，这是最后一跌！
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二、再看宏观: T" _/ e3 R& D/ ]2 W* a
以太坊2月日活跃地址维持在55万-70万 （主网），1-2月曾接近/突破100万 新高区间。7日/30日均线仍在上行，证明真实用户和DApp活跃度在增强。
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2月7日单日交易量达2.896M历史最高，2月22日仍维持在170万 。2026年初整体较2025年同期大幅回升，稳定币和L2活动是主要驱动。- Y/ S f) J, ^: p4 U
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/ r6 k" ?: E- [2 |9 Q3 O lETH链上稳定币总供应约158-183B USD（占全球50%以上），2025-2026年持续爬升并创新高，说明稳定币持续增长！
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9 F* f) P9 b9 E% } k4 N0 S交易所ETH储备减少持续下降,全交易所ETH储备降至16.2M ETH（2016年以来最低），2026年初持续净流出。
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. r/ i# k) _% D. Y: G5 N6 w: \所以，结合质押锁定，有效流动供应大幅收紧（约45% ETH已illiquid）, 尽管ETH价格短期承压，但网络基本面在2026年2月正处于爆发前夜0 L8 V4 C7 p1 h9 u( b8 ~3 C# [
三、机构在买，而不是跑; S6 P2 V7 i0 G; B- D
散户恐慌，机构却在布局。ETF 资金流入恢复，企业金库在低位配置 ETH。 传统金融机构持续在以太坊上做代币化产品。
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! Z4 M1 ]) M, E) W1月整体净流出2.53亿美元，但2月17日单日净流入4863万美元（BlackRock ETHA单日 2289万领跑），2月13日也曾翻正 1026万。 G# q p4 B: F; o, I0 X4 g
近期虽有波动，但已出现多次正流入/零流出，累计AUM仍超115亿美元，显示机构在$1900附近开始重新布局。
* {4 `8 O% j. ~5 @8 {1 l: l四、2026 年路线图聚焦
: D0 O8 E' g( ?6 P$ G' L" A升级方向包括：1 S+ G; ~# m* X0 {* u
提升 Gas 上限
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增强 L2 互操作性9 {2 e* n; p/ A. {$ P: w
- X* Q3 h) T* q1 ^% e9 {扩展零知识基础设施# E$ a. P" X+ x+ ?$ i
+ A; r+ _6 W4 C0 z& c2 v
账户抽象
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8 i: ~) p) o- T5 V, Q. r. o* S抗量子安全5 G# r# m" e) ]) `/ q
0 K) B, {# S3 r4 [$ G1 aHarden the L1：后量子密码、FOCIL抗审查、网络韧性测试，V神也强调“不再是UX vs 安全，而是提升安全的UX”, V1 d. c1 }; t+ Z0 [$ t! }
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所以，如果宏观稳定、资金回流，ETH 不需要炒作，只需要被重新定价。. w! l$ x; ^% W( b
0 T0 t5 u) g2 e+ G) S这不是盲目乐观，我坚信，冬天往往是最大反弹的起点。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 238 小时
本月在线: 13 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 123 小时
本月在线: 17 小时
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这波跌得挺狠，但看数据好像真有人在默默抄底，心态得稳住啊 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 75 小时
本月在线: 14 小时
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ETH 这价位确实有点诱人了，但真进去还得看后续怎么走 |
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