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[虚拟币交流]
比特币兑美元暴跌：现在抄底还是继续等待更低的价格？（转）
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两年后，当比特币价格跌至 40 万美元，以太坊价格跌至 2.5 万美元时，你打算如何感谢特朗普先生造成比特币价格的这次历史性暴跌？
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我们确实需要印更多美元。根据 99Bitcoins 和 Cowen 的分析师预测，美元价格下跌的时间点如下：
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6 |* Z Y+ { H3 j4 {$ X6 B比特币价格走势：为什么全世界都在恐慌抛售？% ?. `! p- L+ Q
' y1 n/ o! p! T( ]0 f" s市值6 k/ l: i* E g* H+ ~
8 p4 o+ n2 {0 l2 C& z" s24小时 7天 30天 1年 所有时间
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2 d( A( W# T7 b& |% P0 {结果是，加密货币领域充斥着太多骗局、山寨币骗局和无用项目；我们需要一个新的架构来构建未来。5 J) j' d# w h. T6 X* Q! R
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在他的框架下，市场目前的表现已经像一个熊市周期，在没有散户狂热的情况下触顶，这可能会延长周期，并使反弹在即将结束之前显得很有说服力。5万至6万美元。
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L8 d) _7 A+ q3 V8 {' w（来源：Facebook）
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& V# Z4 t9 k- ~) n# I对于任何问“我们什么时候买入比特币？”的人，这里有一个明确的结论：你要寻找的是投降区域和确认水平，而不是感觉。
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" i5 V7 @6 B. P+ l" B- @) _' z> Benjamin Cowen（Into The Cryptoverse）：“最有可能的结果是比特币……至少会跌到 200 周移动平均线。我认为低点很可能在 10 月份出现……那时我会买入。”
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科恩还提到，到了春夏之交，他愿意重新审视这个论点。
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买入区域地图：挥杆前需要注意的事项
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考恩的“买入窗口”逻辑基本上分为两类：0 U8 [8 x- p9 @( |& e
- r! w( C- R2 R# J- b战术性逢低买入（风险较高）：价格扫过之前的低点后，出现反弹并触及阻力位（通常是 200 日均线区域），这可能形成宏观上的更低高点，并带来另一个卖出机会。结构性买入（风险较低）：夏末至第四季度的情况，恐慌情绪高涨，波动性很大，价格正在测试长期成本基础水平。" i/ l0 D) j6 }) `1 [& q
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就我个人而言，如果我要买入，我希望买入的感觉是不舒服的，而不是像在商场看到“促销”横幅那样。这通常意味着在杠杆和信心都被消耗殆尽的情况下，试探性地在深层成本价位区间进行交易。. P7 f ?; E8 D) `+ W0 R% c' E2 Z
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Glassnode 将这种结构描述为“脆弱的”，其上涨行情容易受到抛售和供应过剩的影响，而不是一种清晰的趋势体系。
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为了追踪这一点，许多交易员通过 FRED 的美元和利率系列来观察贸易加权美元指数和政策预期。
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一个简单的决策框架：逢低买入。市场此刻正在告诉你什么- ?+ M2 B" a- i
/ ?" N9 i2 A1 S- x! K如果你想要一种基于规则的方法，而不是沉迷于无意义的滚动浏览：
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激进的进入策略：只有当抛售势头疲软时，才在主要成本基础支撑区域附近（想想“真实均值”区域）扩大规模。保守派的入场思路：等待持久的转变，例如周线强势重新夺回主要移动平均线水平（考恩使用 50 周逻辑作为市场机制过滤器）。无效化以示尊重：如果比特币在每周收盘价上重新站稳关键趋势水平并守住，那么“中期熊市”的论点就会减弱；现在可能是最佳买入时机。8 j) L1 X( L' A/ D4 T/ Q3 ?
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当然，最稳妥的做法是逢低买入，而不是试图抄底。少量买入，如果年底前股价创下历史新高，你就不会亏损。
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唉，这市场真是让人捉摸不透，感觉抄底和等待都挺纠结的 |
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