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随着美元走软，比特币价格稳定在 8.8 万美元附近（转）
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通常情况下，美元持续走弱会对比特币有利，因为比特币的走势通常与美元呈反向关系。然而，这种关系已经失效。今年以来，美元指数下跌了1.7%，而比特币仅上涨了0.4%，落后于美元指数。股票标普500指数上涨约1.5%。相反，投资者只对将资金配置到贵金属表现出了真正的兴趣。
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+ }5 P1 K) t3 {; {9 y6 m0 Q黄金和白银价格创历史新高。
" ]/ N2 @7 A# O9 |* L+ o黄金和银黄金和白银价格均从历史高位飙升至历史新高，其中黄金价格达到每盎司5100美元，白银价格攀升至每盎司112美元。今年以来，黄金和白银价格分别上涨了18%和56%，凸显出在政策不确定性、地缘ZZ风险以及围绕美国的持续疑虑下，市场对传统避险资产的强劲需求。前景贵金属被视为防御性对冲工具；相比之下，比特币正经历身份危机，在这种环境下，它既不是防御性对冲工具，也不是完全的风险资产。
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* w0 P5 p+ A% r4 I2 M3 g0 U+ F) z比特币作为一种替代价值储存手段，与黄金有一些共同特征，但它也对汇率波动更为敏感。流动性市场状况和风险情绪的变化。在当前环境下，比特币处于风险偏好和风险规避情绪的夹缝中，无法完全受益于任何一方。9 v) g% S, m9 z2 w9 I% I9 r* v u
0 G8 Q5 i: t8 y6 h$ c, |# I, p+ o联邦公开市场委员会利率决议
% k8 M, _! T6 h% H0 s展望未来，市场焦点转向明日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）利率决议。市场普遍预期美联储将维持利率不变。利率利率维持在3.5%-3.75%不变，这使得市场焦点集中在鲍威尔主席的新闻发布会上。如果鲍威尔采取鹰派立场，抵制ZZ压力并捍卫美联储的独立性，短期内可能有助于稳定美元。然而，美联储若采取更为谨慎的立场，也可能对比特币以及黄金和白银等贵金属构成压力。
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8 o+ ^8 x v3 l) |! k比特币技术分析: n! _. {; L1 a
BTC/USDT 跌破上升楔形看跌反转形态，跌破上升趋势线支撑位、50 日均线和 9 万整数关口，跌至 8.6 万的低点。价格从该水平反弹，但仍在该关键支撑位转为阻力位的区域下方交易，加之相对强弱指数 (RSI) 低于 50，令卖方仍抱有进一步下跌的希望。
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85K是关键支撑位。跌破该位将打开进一步下跌的大门，目标位可能为80K和75K，即2025年的低点。
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任何复苏都需要突破 9 万大关、整数关口和 50 日均线，才能将目标锁定在 9.5 万，进而达到 10 万的心理关口。0 E! C3 S9 n1 I# @( ^
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