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[lastpost] => 2784957 比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转） 1764246402 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转）
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比特币价格再次攀升，而这波市场上涨与美国货币政策预期的转变不谋而合。+ H/ O! U/ f& h6 a% O
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要点总结：
/ A6 i5 C+ O* p: c1 g J& L9 _由于交易员预期在凯文·哈塞特可能出任美联储主席的情况下，美联储的立场会更加鸽派，比特币价格反弹至 91,000 美元以上。/ @; g6 D: Q* k; }' X
链上" @9 g+ S- c) J0 M) T
在区块链上记录和验证的交易。
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链上信号有所改善，Puell 倍数从深度累积水平上升。
. U, M% s, ?8 u$ f5 r8 _4 j5 Y) v技术指标偏向看涨，但 93000 美元和 96500 美元仍然是下一个关键阻力位。 i5 b+ h0 J9 n7 q- }! N
本周早些时候发生滑倒后，比特币 受交易量上升以及衍生品和链上分析市场情绪改善的支撑，该股在过去 24 小时内反弹至 91,000 美元区域，涨幅达 4%。
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4 |: K: ~8 C- @0 }' z美联储主席预期转变——比特币做出反应
; {! e1 Q5 Q; J* P8 Q推动今天这一举动的关键因素似乎是人们越来越相信凯文·哈塞特现在是……领先候选人在唐纳德·特朗普总统的领导下，哈塞特有望成为下一任美联储主席。预测市场显示，哈塞特遥遥领先于其他竞争者，而且他的政策立场被认为明显更为鸽派——倾向于更大幅度的降息，并可能推出新的量化宽松政策（QE）。9 A* l8 c8 E, B
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当市场对未来的货币政策走向有了更清晰的预期时，风险资产往往会提前反映出这种转变。比特币交易员押注哈塞特领导下的美联储将倾向于宽松的金融环境，而历史上这种环境对加密货币通常是有利的。
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链上指标变得具有建设性1 F- d# |- _! F
普埃尔倍数（Puell Multiple）是一个备受关注的模型，历史上它通常预示着比特币周期触底，当该指标跌破 0.50 时，比特币价格就会触底反弹。目前，该指标已升至 0.67。虽然这一数值仍处于下行积累区间，但分析师指出，当该指标从低位回升时，比特币通常会开始恢复上涨动能。6 Y* J* W' C p# i
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普埃尔倍数已对比特币进行了标记$BTC自 2015 年以来，当价格跌破 0.50 时，周期便触底。, X& V* B1 `: d, n% f
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现在是0.67。pic.twitter.com/6Z0ednSaRf6 ^* ^0 @1 A; k! e9 o
* H& y+ R7 [$ R* w— Ali (@ali_charts)2025年11月26日; P% u8 A) H6 J! G; l9 y
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市场观察人士强调，以往的周期中，当矿业公司收入趋于稳定且普埃尔倍数脱离极低水平时，都会出现大幅上涨——这种模式现在开始重演。
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衍生品在最近的价格波动中发挥了作用。过去一天，价值超过 1.32 亿美元的比特币头寸……清算其中空头占了绝大部分（约1.14亿美元）。资金重置和强制清算进一步推动了比特币在上周大幅抛售后的反弹。
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技术图表显示动能正在增强。
4 b0 G& B, f. f4 E) i0 b比特币4小时图显示结构正在走强，RSI( X+ U1 x- ?' H% Y/ G W2 D. ~5 ?2 n7 q
8 o+ n1 ^9 ? s6 |/ Z, c {! [相对强弱指数
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' x/ F7 d6 s7 q6 n" k8 }8 `和 RSI正在恢复到65-70分的水平MACD7 q* B2 S5 F+ T. [' N, w
移动平均收敛/发散
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“>MACD向上突破零轴，表明动能正在增强。
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