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[lastpost] => 2761164 美国GDP数据登陆比特币、以太坊等公共区块链（转） 1756515160 韩少
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过去一周，比特币[BTC]一直受困于低流动性流入，导致自 8 月 14 日重新创下历史新高以来已下跌 10%。
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: z5 S, ^) S9 }% s8 ]- k值得注意的是，这种流动性枯竭通常预示着潜在的看跌情景，因为当市场达到季节性高潮时，投资者开始抛售资产。* j) j2 g" r8 i& p0 U) n t( d; X
$ ^) a4 P5 h3 S# m然而，新的宏观经济见解认为，尽管逆转的风险仍然存在，但市场仍然看涨。
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宏观信号依然支持
& F4 F$ b0 E. L美国宏观经济指标阿尔弗莱克塔尔根据美联储金融压力指数 (FFSI)，比特币和标准普尔 500 指数在未来几天都有进一步上涨的空间。
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( e% g* m' h7 T V1 u' b" u6 `) {0 O该指数追踪市场紧张程度，高于 0 的高读数表示卖方压力，而低于 0 的数值则反映市场平静和购买兴趣。4 |" E, v3 o% H4 `6 j+ G/ o- C5 e
4 O I( u" }3 d; W5 X5 M从历史上看，该指标曾预测过重大的市场波动，包括2020年封锁期间。截至发稿时，FFSI低于0，预示着未来仍有增长空间。
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市场情绪似乎更倾向于比特币而非标准普尔 500 指数，尤其是考虑到过去一年的表现，比特币上涨了 86.2%，而标准普尔指数则上涨了 15.3%。阿尔忒弥斯.
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n; M% @- {( N5 t% ~这表明，如果购买恢复，投资者可能会将资金投入比特币而不是标准普尔，因为他们的风险偏好依然强劲。/ e8 n# C( {- q7 Y. M3 E* D+ t6 d
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著名加密货币分析师 Joao Wedson 最近将此描述为市场“平静/观察”阶段，但警告称“价格走势通常比宏观指标反应更快”，从而使资产处于灰色地带。
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3 q- m' X' U& y/ E! y: N3 S, d4 N他补充道，
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$ A! x- l" n% Y9 g5 J! S“如果FFSI跌破并保持在0以上，这将是一个警告信号，表明美国局势可能不稳定，并直接影响风险市场。”
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韦德森警告称，随着我们进入 2025 年末和 2026 年初，这种情况可能会引发“亚洲主要经济体”更广泛的经济不稳定，从而可能阻止比特币的上涨。; h( Z) z/ ]( `
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他敦促投资者做好准备，以免措手不及。
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亚洲比特币市场再度走强- n7 Z; a& }/ F$ K
亚洲市场正显示出复苏的早期迹象，随着韩国溢价指数达到 0.3，投资者再次对比特币进行买入。CryptoQuant.& T M x: T* s( W" B
5 P& g0 ]9 q. r( x; ?! B/ U) k此前，该指数一直处于持续的下跌趋势中，并以红色标记。持续的上涨趋势可能会引发更多资金流入，尤其是来自新投资者群体的资金。
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$ Q" t$ {! K6 R. U相比之下，截至发稿时，关键市场指标 Coinbase 溢价指数已降至 0.017，这表明美国投资者正在增加卖方活动。( c3 \0 i1 ~$ R
1 N3 B8 k" J2 j" x7 S+ M# t然而，如果这一指标反弹，它可能会增强围绕比特币日益增长的看涨情绪。
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宏观偏暖，量弱，先小仓吧
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