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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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H u# l' A' `6 L4 c 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。; w# \ s- m8 G2 a4 p8 j
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。- ^$ h( x$ g4 Y+ T8 p. b) q( Y1 [! q
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。- N0 L6 e$ _: `0 e
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。1 ~& Y1 k- K, s& k% N
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，2 s' I) x3 D R/ M' N4 E+ t
' a* k c3 P: z A价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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, R/ u" B* U( G f( l k8 p2 R0 a “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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6 i6 y+ I4 S" c/ h7 a0 c框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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2 T W' t; L0 y# ~ 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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8 t. w/ P5 H, w7 g积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”8 Q R1 n8 L$ L7 c, S% _4 i9 C% V' X0 i
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! b* G8 w8 W9 d& S- C1 Z 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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* U B& P5 c* u+ h; p3 k" x 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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6 w1 t2 S1 c- J' [+ l4 y( L( ]0 | 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势/ ^1 p! ^0 o- ^# S0 G- H4 C8 Y
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。$ |% t8 T, c, ~3 k( L! s
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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# n" K& d& N- N) |3 N 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，2 ` O+ l6 R( N3 N, B5 a
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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