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小分3种情况:
4 A: c& A0 ?. G4 k/ a" K% j
' U! X4 V& a: e) K) s2 L* ~, ?1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
9 f* f: ?$ S7 U4 [5 Y
2 ~2 X: ], B; l4 u0 x! I2 G: [2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
) ~* u8 T5 C) _$ I* V1 [0 F
p+ ^0 B3 ]' J* d/ \3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。6 T" U* s7 P% p1 R. A% S7 M
: |* d0 J7 i. P! g9 G
2张牌8或9点的情况有:6 X1 j% C# F6 {
8 l# Y# N/ C. s) L' {, [9 F$ K! f1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+104 n! V3 q6 N" ?3 R) @# t
! s! n' h( e, ? v, a1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415& ` D2 I" g1 m8 b. E% T) u
. S2 o. Q9 k1 e/ @- C
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415) {; ~1 i+ ]) Q) J
" y7 z) a9 C5 i& n1 t2 O4 w
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
3 p& j1 m3 ?' g& s7 I/ t
5 E- p$ k7 B( n6 c& L/ c8 t, W" ?由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。2 L% T e( s4 N3 M) r8 G# [
; R$ {' d' Y1 ~5 i) B
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。5 L. U! Q# v8 D3 n
/ d0 x# r- A2 }0 S
那么我们可以得出
) C1 U$ i e2 p% V) m; k) q( M' R" E6 {
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
! j6 Q# h: B$ D' s5 ]; r2 [) O4 L& S( T6 s2 B
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 # K; n" F" `* U
, a" e3 [ `! m. G$ h6 z; b3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
. `: V& z! x2 |, |% c- Z4 g, z. y* T# \5 J- N+ @
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
4 r# F$ @3 g p$ Y/ \& h2 t8 f. D) r/ ]/ _: O! R( z, g# F
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677+ `, b7 A9 u8 x3 E
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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