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[lastpost] => 2647794 比特币迎来新的里程碑,处理10亿笔交易(转) 1715066281 越前龙马
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当前离线
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首先回顾下本周发生的事情:熊:美国ZF开始将其查获的暗网电商丝绸之路的5 @' S% a3 \4 o
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总计30174枚比特币转向了交易所,相关人士认为这是抛售的前兆,因此带来了恐慌,, w( E z4 K4 Q. z# e& e
9 Y5 z: ~; P! E( a
方舟基金,灰度基金都抛售了比特币。这导致币比特币一度跌到64500附近。
% C1 Y. c' S* v% |# g7 p% V8 ]( v; `) s$ P3 Y
z% B; D6 S% a. @
1 W8 I* d6 K; g" q9 \ 牛:(1)Fidelity,Blackrock都在持续增持比特币,其中blackroak增持3100枚,
+ e/ ~6 D; [% B8 j! U3 g5 D! L3 Q% P) }7 d* G3 _
Fidelity增持1100枚(2)神秘地址以100枚为单位疯狂购入比特币,越跌越买,四天
( w" ]5 @0 k" s, J5 V) `% K) ^6 z" V; j+ p9 E+ Z( K' P
内抄底2170枚。个人猜测可能是某国ZF在买入,如果未来的有一天,某个国家ZF* b. W, Q8 f7 j# E- ~) O' t2 B
7 w- }. l% v. w G) u. Q6 V3 u宣布其持续买入比特币,可能就是准备抛售,见大顶的时候(3)usdt4天内增发30亿5 u9 b, B6 A& o S1 u# n$ K1 J6 H
" t. @: J; k) E" v# H" a5 C: e$ s枚,在过去的日子,以周为单位,USDT增发都会带来币价大涨聊完了新闻,我们回到
! L6 o1 |* [% O @, ?2 q$ ]. b/ r& f( R' y) k
k线。首先看比特币:从日线上看,比特币在两个红色矩形之间(60000,72000)形成7 e$ x; I5 [8 A
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震荡,振幅逐步收窄,很快就要选择出方向。考虑HSEMA9逐步逼近蓝色EMA18,死
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叉一旦形成,上涨趋势会被破环,比特币将测试下方红色矩形6万的位置。因此,为了$ Q, D$ u @6 Q _& C d6 @
; Z% p# ~ c5 T避免死叉的形成,比特币需要快速反弹。反弹只有突破绿色区间71300的位置才可以确6 l2 J- T1 k0 U& z5 L! \8 k: h V
0 n8 C) K( w% h9 i J! V定一个更高的高点,从而走出下降趋势。如果无法站稳71300,再次测试60000只是时
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间问题。如果6万不保,下方HS矩形是大支撑,也就是53000~50000的区间。个人认, N" X3 j0 u% x) e7 G. V2 D7 U
8 P+ `8 U# N- N0 R为这是最坏的情况,不认可一些人认为去3万。9 y0 I S7 R: M( e+ H; @, I
9 d' V; y0 n1 a0 u% {# ?从4小时来看基本和日线一致,无需赘述。不过4小时的EMA200形成了一个比较强的支撑/ u7 U& o1 J: W+ J) A7 e
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,已经测试4次进行了反弹。本人也多次在EMA200做多吃到了短线涨幅。但考虑一个支撑& }1 P y; ]3 j
! X6 z4 f* e3 p5 V/ F+ V2 E+ S B; W位被多次测试,那么其跌破的概率就越来越多。因此,如果比特币不能快速收复73100,
( f! u; E0 O9 D1 B7 M$ C: O) ?
EMA200跌破只是时间问题,下一步就看60000的表现。! v* f' }. P9 D' T P
* J- E0 e. o/ Z( u& F( O1 E$ B2 l! j考虑美股连涨5个月有短期见顶的信号,结合美国可能抛售的3万枚比特币。本人近期看空,
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' l' G( L3 Z; o1 r1 U' ~认为比特币至少会去次6万。
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9 \. l; W) `. z- _% S- r9 P" x6 S
抛售量这个也是很多的了吧 |
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