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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第二节]
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第二节 平手/半球初盘9 Z1 x4 z' p$ m& p
* J6 [' V, Z. Z- h 平半降盘,主难出3
" X! c* y5 x& v3 |! Q 一般情况下,主队初盘让平/半只是对主场因素的考虑。在英超08-09赛季澳彩以平/半为初盘的83场比赛中,主队37胜26平20负,比率为胜45%、平31%、负24%,。虽然主胜率略高于客胜率,但是平局比率较大,使得主队不胜率高达55%。此数据与以往赛季略有出入。再看09-10赛季英超已经进行的比赛的统计。) n4 a. c% S/ }5 a& N1 ]/ I0 @6 t- Q
09-10赛季半程主队平手/半球盘成绩统计:
9 X/ [0 s1 p. R8 d+ P 英超主队/ S5 r' z; \. P* |! |. M; `$ `/ J
胜:23场 40%
4 U2 y! W0 w- w$ i1 F, M 平:21场 36%1 U- G; G. h6 V: ^4 V: ?
负:13场:22%$ b% Z/ Q9 f& a9 d5 C
通过统计可以看到,英超平/半初盘,在09-10赛季进行时中的表现与上个赛季出入并不大。打平的比率与主胜比率已经十分接近,此盘路下足彩重点应在防平方面。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位为例,开始分析英超主队平手/半球初盘盘路。
1 a9 |* q2 g/ y. X
' L& k' l8 h+ E; A 一、初盘阶段
% s4 ^# O1 |: e* Z! P 0 g8 @/ j; Y9 G/ Z7 C- x
具体到水位如下:9 ^* m8 Q* a4 x! [
初盘低水:英超主队 5胜7平3负
/ m) D3 A) K i+ i3 t 初盘中水:英超主队10胜4平4负
' Q4 Z6 T3 O1 K1 ? 初盘高水:英超主队3胜8平5负* S7 U7 K4 U5 t$ ?
9 S8 z+ f# T+ E$ `5 L: t 分析:初盘阶段平/半低水,主要发生在0.76-0.85区间。其中出现最频繁的是初盘0.84低水,该水下主队1胜3平1负,主队不胜次数较多,足彩打出10的可能较大。' H0 j' I/ G" |# r* C" p+ z' K
初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.86-0.98水位区间。该水位下主队赢球机会较大,但是客胜和平局的比率也不小。在该中水范畴内0.92-0.94区间下主队输球比率较低,足彩打出31可能很大。0.88水位出现了2次均都分出了胜负,足彩可作为30双选的备选考虑。0.96、0.98水的不确定因素较多,足彩任选9和单场建议回避,14场的大单建议全包。在中水下要特别关注的是0.86/1.00水,在英超平/半盘中,该水位下主队基本不败,足彩跑出31的几率较大。 E6 B$ r5 P. c. U
初盘阶段高水水位,主要发生在1.00-1.10区间。该区间内主队取胜的机会并不多。其中1.02水下主队输球或不胜次数最多,足彩打出10机会较多。1.00、1.10水下几乎都是平局,足彩出1的机会很大。1.08、1.06、1.04这三种水位下主队均都输球,足彩出0的可能性需要重视。
! w) S0 g( Z/ } % } W2 l1 d9 s- u5 w: q
二、临场阶段
$ u$ p' W8 u" L7 O( a3 g
9 g0 z/ |" P& d/ Z! ^. _3 L2 ~: ? 具体到盘口变化如下:4 O" F3 G, l4 U3 V
临场降为平手: 英超主队 1胜1平2负$ E# j$ U/ p% [, i
临场升为半球: 英超主队 3胜3平1负. L v0 @. [2 j) k8 Z
( [ I/ X, v. q) s% A
分析:临场主队降为平手盘,英超主队只取得1次胜利,主队不胜的比率较大,足彩10的可能性极高。这里要提醒大家的是,如在主弱客强、但是主队状态或者战意强于客队时,主队初盘让平/半高水,临场降盘升水到平手高水或超高水、而诸如立博、易胜博等亚盘甚至转为主队受让平/半高水时,则要注意客队大热、主队赢球可能反倒增大。/ F# O* G2 ?3 n6 E7 I, A0 J
临场主队升盘为半球盘,即区别升盘后是造热还是阻盘的问题,统计结果是主队基本不败,足彩31格局较正路。输赢盘的盘口特征如下:$ |+ f1 ~* @! S% ?
6 R, ^ b: b, |, t
狼队0-1朴茨茅斯
- K" X8 V, m+ V) T3 Z& M9 O* |5 W 初盘:0.76平手/半球1.10% [6 e5 ?& b6 Y" v* l, I- \) R
终盘:1.11半球0.75( }! z: f3 n ~/ P' l0 s
8 Q5 e. W6 u( _7 Q' G; o 切尔西1-0曼联
( E8 |, S T( U 初盘:0.78平手/半球1.083 b; r7 U: G8 K* W
终盘:0.86半球1.00: ]0 X- W$ t4 |
+ \/ w' p8 i- w S. Y
切尔西2-0利物浦
) T4 L% w6 K% i0 b2 E 初盘:0.88平手/半球0.98' _8 }" @: Z+ s0 x1 j0 f
终盘:1.03半球0.83* P1 g( s }" a4 }! W+ U L
% d) `0 ^2 a3 R; X- Z2 Z
热刺3-0曼城(赢盘)
1 K! z$ f, I" O. Z7 p 初盘:0.94平手/半球0.92* T8 T3 ~% i7 D. L
终盘:1.03半球0.83: R5 w" U% z3 T. T. u4 z+ J
/ p& Z$ |: |) W; I
博尔顿1-1斯托克城
% p* j; l" x9 ^ 初盘:0.86平手/半球1.00
& C5 k$ g P+ B& b 终盘:1.04半球0.828 x3 h+ P9 O9 j. {$ A& y1 K2 A2 t
" }) J, P: f, W* l' R& K 提示1:初盘0.86/1.00水位作为上下盘水位,在平手盘和平/半初盘多次出现,在该水位下主队基本都不败,但要注意的是平局的次数也较多。0 l. `* V$ c- i9 Z
提示2:初盘水位0.88/0.96分胜负的概率较大。英超、英冠本赛季已经出现10场在初盘该水位下没有平局的比赛。) D- y: D3 U" m. x/ n
4 R2 }; [8 I4 C6 x5 ?9 A4 [
三、球队表现. R2 i' J: Y5 T# R4 ?2 q0 D
% [! q* s( j1 H/ w, O! { f
赢盘较多的富勒姆,在初盘让平/半于实力接近的客队时都取得了胜利,在09-10赛季的两次平/半盘中分别战胜了布莱克本和桑德兰,该队让平/半初盘时主场出3的能力值得关注。其他表现较好球队是切尔西、伯明翰、斯托克城、维冈竞技,这些队伍都在主场让平/半时赢球较多,其中切尔西本赛季在平/半初盘下取得2胜、分别战胜了曼联和利物浦,伯明翰和富勒姆目前都是4胜1平1负,维冈竞技2胜4平,这些球队在让平/半盘时客队赢球机会都很小,无特别情况足彩31值得信任。狼队是在平/半盘下很少打出平局的球队,成绩是2胜1平3负,平/半盘下该队足彩可多考虑走两头。表现较差的球队是阿森纳、朴茨茅斯、埃弗顿、维拉、赫尔城、博尔顿,这些球队在平/半初盘下都是或平或败,目前均无赢球纪录,遇到他们的赛事,足彩建议以双选01为主。& p3 n0 p" C" q- @6 |1 b7 o. ?4 C# ^
$ v6 |( c2 g5 Q& L# `
四、投注要点
3 L) O1 m& f* e$ \/ y ; ?0 V4 P% u8 N Y6 F, N( A# o- Y$ M
要点1:平/半降盘,不选3
* j4 u: P8 e2 @: |( w+ \ 要点2:初盘低水,注意关注提示的水位
N/ W* G5 ]6 P4 ? k: q 要点3:主队升盘,多31
9 m; s9 o- d M) J8 W% W 要点4:切尔西平/半、赢球多
# P- D9 w* u& C/ c0 ^3 e 要点5:兵工厂平/半、0不可少* Y3 k$ |! S, Z' {2 r; q% c6 H
要点6:切尔西升盘,首3补1可省0 |
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