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经常看到大家面讨论水位变化的结果,看到后让我再一次陷入了沉思中,水位的变化是不是真的对闲家来说没有参考意义.抑或是,盘口无用论是一条真实的定理.讨论这个问题之前,最先让我想到的是"初盘"这个概念./ s H( ~- h7 ]
初盘:在初盘的计算中,按照操盘手们的话理解过来应该是这样子的./ G' k z- R3 Q! Y5 V
通过开盘公式计算出来的结果 = A *公司智囊团操盘手们的经验结果 = B
" K6 ~6 y) J6 ]+ v*公司预计的闲家对这场比赛的认识结果 = C/ k. B! w7 U' J% m5 f a! Z
那么最后的初盘结果应该 = A*a + B*b + C*c
% ^4 X7 X1 @* M7 e其中a b c为三个系数,我自己给它起了一个名字叫做,初盘体系系数. a+b+c= 100% 不同的*公司的系数体系肯定是不同的,也是众多闲家所无法得知和预测的.
, C3 _0 A7 g& L0 @2 W5 ]解释一下上面的公式,如一场比赛中*公司为某个玩法(这里多数指欧盘,因为欧盘是指导盘,是最先开出来的)中项目A开赔率,首先就要计算其出现概率, 假设通过开盘公司计算出的概率为 40% 而智囊团操盘手们的经验得出的概率为45% 而*公司预计闲家们眼中的概率为70%.
0 n2 X1 K S. m" |5 ~那么最后开出的概率就是: 40%*a + 45%*b + 70%*c.. ]2 a3 T2 f+ j! P/ |0 m
通过上面的公司可以看出,*公司的开盘公式(或是其开盘计算理论)就是影响初盘三个因子中的第一个.好多人往往忽略了 *公司智囊团操盘手们的经验结果B 和 *公司预计的闲家对这场比赛的认识结果C的作用.我记得版面上有一篇经典的文章讨论中提到过和上述类似的理论,但是仅仅提到的是C,而没有B.
: v4 k2 ~' R: y/ X/ H0 P" M* Z; R在A B C三个因子中:
9 E) X5 P, C" h. OA 几乎是在开盘之后不变的,因为公式和理论仅仅对数据进行处理,同样的数据不可能在短时间内出现不同的结果.
; {. g# r8 I. pB 有可能作出微小调整,可能赛前的某些消息和变化,会让智囊团和操盘手们改变对一场比赛的看法.7 |8 W! L8 v% T2 e2 E7 b
C 最有可能发生变化的因子.因为闲家们对一场比赛的看法很难用数据和理论进行统计,*公司往往也是一个估计性的结果., @8 p# S e- h4 K% ^. n- q( `
以上解释就是我对初盘的理解.
2 ?2 ^ I. L& ^1 n' n* o5 [在初盘被开出之后,实际上反作用于C,闲家们会根据*公司开出的初盘做出一定的调整,而实际上赛前一两天关于比赛发生的变化也参杂进来.所以在正式接受*的时候,初盘往往会做出一定的调整.4 h' R% H/ ~6 F# y# ?3 {& s: _
引入上例中a b c 的体系系数,设a = 40% b = 20% c = 40% 得到概率为:(40%*40+45%*20%+70%*40%)= 53%
" n7 D7 t Q+ F假设在受住前后发生了一种变化 ,让*公司的智囊团觉得概率应该调整为 40%, 而大众反倒认为应该上升至80%0 o* f) _4 k; i# E
那么调整之后的概率就是:(40%*40+40%*20%+80%*40%)= 56%
0 `) H' i. U( O8 c( G1 |& r; f" z5 g也就出现了明明*公司不看好这个赛果出现,反而在赔率方面调高其出现概率的情况.
# o) w, y) |1 ]' n# e7 `! y利用这个公式大家可以演变一下bc两个值的变化情况就可以解释大部分初盘到受注盘之间的变化情况.在此就不一一演示了.而所谓的大热必死也不一定全部出现,用这个公式的解释就是,如果A赛项为热门*赛项则*公司的赔率变化幅度要和大众的热衷程度保持一致,大热就未必死.一旦*公司的赔率变化幅度小于很多大众的热衷程度,两者存在较大差异,则大热必死就出现了
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