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很多玩家都在苦苦追寻百家乐的连赢玩法,但是对于连赢的认识并不深入。其实百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略是相通,只要摸清了游戏特点,才能找到制胜方法。
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- I+ ]4 Q0 m! f2 w" D9 o一般来说,
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) m/ g3 R1 T7 t, l; p二连赢的概率是25%
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) g& ^ x1 D/ S, y! [% ]三连赢的概率是12.5%
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0 D* E# F, o& l7 P$ \% [- v) N四连赢的概率是6.25%* J7 b- j" I( e1 |
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……
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十连赢的概率是0.09765625%7 F8 o3 {3 }, i0 y5 |) Y$ N# U
6 h7 q! e1 y% ~. ~9 g这些概率值是所谓的相对概率,也就是二连赢25%的意思是只连续抛硬币4次之后,会有四种结果,二连赢就是其中的1种,所以他的概率是25%,同样的十连赢的概率也是基于1024次的10次抛硬币的结果组成。4 J$ ?) V- A+ o+ c
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百家乐的真实概率含义是:
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+ W) M! r" L8 [2 Z2 L, x假定一个口袋里有很多个球,其中有1号,2号,3号,4号,5号,6号,7号,8号,9号,10号球
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1号球有512个,2号256个,3号128个,4号64个,5号32个,6号16个,7号8个,8号4个,9号2个,10号1个。
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你要做的就是在这么多球里面每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸。如果你第一次摸到10号球,第一次一样也可以再摸到10次。
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你每一次摸到的任何一个球的概率都是存在的,除非你摸无限次,才能接近之前提到的概率。概率在个体和短期内是无效的。: a( J9 ^+ E( i& d5 H! [1 Z4 M0 w
, X7 D: W+ s$ o8 ~, W另外一个说法是,
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1、百家乐不是每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸,而是每次摸一个球,不放回去,再剩下的球里重新摸。+ E5 g, m) V$ o
9 U% m3 U8 K7 a2、概率在个体和短期内是有效的,牌入盒后出闲的概率是:49.32%,但是随着发出的牌的变化,牌盒内所剩下的牌数量的减少,他的概率就会每时每刻都会变化。) ?0 u# C/ f( ^8 ^1 o* R
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再把这个概率代入期望值公式,当+EV出现就下注,就会做到平均赢。' H; m5 J- K( I( V6 h% v
0 `, `. H- l8 Q; D, K# }& p平均赢只是长期而言会赢,短期也可能会被震幅消灭,这时就要算标准差,再接合你获得的优势,按凯利值下注就可以做到破产风险最低,利润最大化。
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`! C$ N$ ?0 F; p对于这样的说法,百家乐玩家的解释是,首先,百家乐肯定是每次摸一球个放进去,只是袋子里的球和你的数学模型一定要配合。
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- P- Y6 @6 v; J+ y: t0 o举个例子,如果你是打庄闲的,袋子里永远只有两个球,每次摸完一个之后要放回去,然后再摸。这个概念是不容置疑的。1 A2 ?% T. }0 u" A: e' x) F0 s
3 F0 w' J) p- C9 t第二,因为大数法则和算牌对百家乐的无效性,牌盒内所剩下多少牌,对庄闲的比例不会发生任何的变化
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5 i& \: a" Z- O7 b) J" g5 `7 h第三,凯利公式的问题在于:形而上学。
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首先主观假设了一个不成立的底部,玩久了一定会遇到被爆仓的概念,当然任何一种模型都会有爆仓的可能,只是单纯的凯利更容易爆仓而已。研究的方向是多维+赢进补偿,玩过Diablo3就知道在Mp8的难度下,打到钥匙的可能性是80%。
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0 x8 L0 r; A9 ~. z3 L! Z+ T4 m9 C) d事实上,你玩的时候,基本上每次都能打到。
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因此,百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略,对于不同的玩家有不同的理解,如何找到适合于自己的玩法和制胜之道,是每个玩家都需要积累实战经验去摸索的。: n" Z1 r6 N- ]9 j/ w) W
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