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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

: e, l9 V5 G. _% k, k: ]9 U
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
+ s7 ?0 n! y  I# T: h+ q$ c# V& t: \10A23456789- S) q; N* B3 k# @! M
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.1595 {# L! P6 h' O  h
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146! x: `4 \. w. a% Q, B$ R$ e
-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.1339 V+ V+ [4 u* O7 Q, ]$ h
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.1208 e; }; b6 s5 {6 M. r
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108* A3 d( c' n' k) y
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
' e4 T+ G: {* x0 Q-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
* d: V3 U: P9 Q" y9 i3 z1 w-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074% C4 R$ m) P6 E
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064/ t4 d0 L1 [7 ~" s7 ^
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054; ~, B4 z, h4 x* v/ C; i+ X
2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045- k2 B+ U- Z' X/ n$ }' C" ^! O$ I
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
- C( S) D1 l4 F- V) B: _4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.0289 b4 T+ k9 l( w: k- J
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
" a+ n3 h. J* k6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
1 e: _* n" a% j7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007* h4 h2 J, b; P2 }) g5 ?+ Q# c
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001% ]6 v' V( A) J+ F" ?
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996& \/ h* K& @5 c1 J8 ]
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992- R3 x7 H6 J/ Q/ V! s& x
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988. \. s; `3 ?- S
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985) T3 Z. ^& j2 N; k: r& b7 ]; n5 F
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
9 ?0 E6 ^* w/ m9 r3 \  r14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980! e. R. Q1 B/ \2 q% n( @! @$ o
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979+ s9 O: Q3 Q. ?9 L' J
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
, ]6 q: a+ {4 \4 `  ~17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.9796 j7 w* E" ^- F; ]2 y" A+ y5 W
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
3 a7 o& r0 B- u# j/ q19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
7 B( `, v% k. Y8 z" m. Q20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.9837 L' m( v% M/ [7 @, h3 V
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.9865 o0 P8 y; V& K& F
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989( [( ?8 N- Z4 p2 s/ P! I: C2 {
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
% q& W6 `# s1 M' H9 w24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
/ M3 p4 [2 ?7 Y  c25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
0 j2 O* x% X! s1 k- E* c, R

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

7 y7 L8 t3 b) P, @
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
2 ^+ Q  m  Y2 E  ]$ z/ q10A23456789
% {# X* Z8 \& Z( a6 H' ^-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
8 Q4 I* X0 _. K5 f1 F9 G6 Y-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
/ |$ e% G& x* w0 p-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
& P% T0 ^9 ?9 R7 i-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056: A1 V8 F2 d9 E- ~. P
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044$ J* K9 R" O$ [5 c  v$ M& P
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032" q4 l: e! _, o- x4 K
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
& y8 n3 N/ q; L3 c. M-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010' y* z) _. g0 l# C/ t9 j. V
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
! j* L8 k0 p/ A9 D. w5 U, i1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.0106 r1 g4 Q1 d: d: s
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019! x5 F6 Q; w" Y' {
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
: _& h, M3 `% g4 A4 a' T0 ?4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036- i# \. g7 U, z7 Y
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.0444 M, n3 E) i" k6 X* d! z
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051; d: h' w. n9 w
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.0576 l+ h2 y4 Q, I! V# N* v
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063# V; o& n3 q; J, V
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068) H% D# }% X; D% v4 e
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072, M, k- V2 b* s; `- \
11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
% P. w, M9 |+ |+ x3 d1 B$ u: {12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
# b. ^9 M) }7 x! b13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
) O5 H2 t& j. Z3 y2 u8 i# Z14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.0845 K$ d  u. u: Q
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085- M0 U# B; O( u0 H
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085' X7 a( f- y! D7 G7 w1 x. X
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085  b& o, c$ v/ {0 q7 l
18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
& |3 o, R+ q. x9 `; |! {, N. b! \19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083) ^0 m& |7 \2 ?/ F9 g
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
8 E6 ~7 R7 w- @# F4 y4 D3 d21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
6 I6 L3 a6 C7 \3 F3 O2 R22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
% G0 V" u; z3 f" t23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071' T+ @- C. ^& ]5 _5 r$ u0 A1 m
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067+ X+ w* I5 A* w/ \$ a: P
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062$ R7 L7 V: E  n/ u. ?, G

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

* p$ v- N* G& Y
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類! `4 k( K; J. ]
10A23456789" C2 V% i0 u  d( V0 d
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.1220 H# v/ h$ j( w4 h4 u
-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
+ E$ R; t# x& F; f* {5 t-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
: i8 o* o4 F" q2 k  b3 X2 y. h" k-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.1661 C! `0 t$ s" }
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
- C' M4 J  |8 ^7 H9 m-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
6 q0 o  W* Y# s) e: I. a-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.2057 Z5 b9 L( [$ H  L; {' e: |
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217& T# U0 U3 j& q+ G
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228& }$ O; R5 L% m( l2 [
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239$ v4 H: A# I! j$ e
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249" T9 t+ t( v- K! q2 J
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258' K/ Y$ u4 Q' R1 O/ G, x0 S
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
' e( [- `2 x: i7 Z, y' p3 I5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274
$ T, Y  g( C! d2 r) m6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
6 c7 n; X8 d6 f7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
; u6 a/ p5 W6 H$ k+ b8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
1 J4 Q  J1 Q. T+ V8 N8 v4 D/ z9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.2989 R2 H7 ]6 [( }5 ?
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
( K3 g8 |! Q, }* X7 O  d7 I' \$ h11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
8 M, o7 A& t2 W2 t  G+ }0 y0 |12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308/ H. r8 A2 a) T/ c: {
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310
* ]0 k, y: o4 [# _% E8 `14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.3112 W3 O% N5 L4 B* _# l! a" n; \) F- b
15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
( E$ Q: x6 E- W9 X' {6 C4 Q16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311  {9 ~$ w( c# |) w7 l3 `
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
& N5 Z4 L/ r3 r$ u18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
+ A" F& B& v- [3 Z0 q) V3 H: X$ r19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
% T* J, z: d5 M  G20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301# j& _. u! Y/ y1 d  Q5 a4 f
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
* ^2 y. D/ `1 W3 y! x1 s22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.2920 x2 j- ~4 s! R/ @" V+ f1 a( j
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286# G; d) ~" p$ x) R# T  P6 K
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.2799 }4 l1 @, k$ j5 R9 v6 O
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.2726 Y" x5 w. x2 f( r- w

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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