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第八节 如何分析球队基本面6 d, w7 e2 i; U1 N$ `* _. m9 p
有些彩民朋友只重视对赔率和盘口的研究,而忽视了对球队基本面信息的深入分析,笔者认为这是不可取的。盘口和赔率固然重要,但只是依靠纷杂的数字来完成对比赛的分析预测是片面的,最科学的方法应该是综合所有数据,将与比赛相关的因素尽可能地都做出全面的分析与思考。球队基本面分析包括了球队的实力、状态、伤停、战意、技战术分析等。- x' D2 G3 R+ u" M, @$ } ~
1、球队实力:球队的本赛季总积分、主客场积分、最近6-10轮的积分、两队间的历史交锋成绩,这些构成了球队的实力对比(通过这些也可以得出两队之间的积分差、涉及到对真实概率的计算)。例如主场龙型的球队到了客场还受到盘口热捧,客场虫的上游球队到了客场还低水让球等,这些都可能带来不小的冷门结果。
: m$ t8 b1 j, A* | 2、球队状态:本赛季球队的总进球数、总失球数。进球多而失球少说明该队攻守平衡,能攻善守。进球多失球也多说明该队属攻强守弱型。进球失球都很少、说明该队属于更重视防守的球队,进球数玩法尽量少碰这种球队。进球少失球多则要注意该队的状态已出现了严重的问题。例如攻强守弱型的球队大球盘盘口开的很大、或者防守较差的球队大小球盘给出低水,这些都可能导致一场进球大战。再就是攻击力很强的球队主场只让平/半、上盘大都较难打出。而一向重视防守的球队让球盘口开大让球,其锋线很可能要出现一次爆发等等。
( K8 G l1 V: N) s8 {) M 3、伤停情况:当球队的中场核心或主力射手因伤倦勤,则要注意该球队的攻击力可能要出现问题,甚至该队的战术打法都要发生变化。而球队的后防大将出现伤停,则要对该队防守方面可能出现的问题引起重视。如巴塞罗那客场被毕尔巴鄂逼平的比赛,在梅西、伊布、哈维均缺席的情况下,客场让一球低水还强行升盘营造上盘信心,最终不出。
: d0 e( Y* Z$ w* {) J. `" K 4、战意:球队对比赛的态度也很关键,即战意问题。 观察球队的战意,需留意球队后三轮的赛事形势,以及最新积分榜。如果中游球队A对中游球队B,两队状态都差不多,A在后三轮中有对强队的比赛争分机会渺茫,那么他们就会在本轮全力以赴的去抢分,此时应看好A队战意。再如有些强队为了联赛夺冠而放弃一些无关紧要的赛事,还有的一些弱队为了联赛保级也会在一些杯赛送分放水等,这些可能都要对比赛的结果产生决定性影响。双线作战、体力、天气甚至财务状况等因素都会对球队的战意产生影响。如曼联、拜仁、皇马这些大牌球队,经常会在一些杯赛中意外输球等。
2 I9 Q2 h( e1 H+ J3 T! U. E" \" S 5、战术特点:强强对话、实力相当、上游打下游、上游打中上游、中上游打下游,对于这些不同等级的较量,球队的战术思想和部署都是不同的。而对这些比赛的比分和进球数据的统计,也可以说明球队对不同对手时战术特点。如曼城、塞维利亚这些准豪门球队经常在强队身上得分,却总是意外的输给一些小球会。 |
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一篇一篇慢慢观看 新来的 研究各个楼主发布的文章 谢谢分享 辛苦了 |
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