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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。( `) t+ o% r% B( L# W0 W
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率* W/ l- d6 C$ ]3 B& K/ ]/ Q9 s
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:$ [6 u8 k! B- H+ E, |
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ) a9 C& R3 G, f6 O& K% V: m
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?5 I+ U6 \8 c h" j5 H
% B, C. X* [, {# U+ _答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)* d1 H) G7 l( @& k/ `
8 {/ T* l- e5 N! U! b! Y' O9 W; `& X
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性9 S3 `5 f3 y7 A- h/ f1 `8 V
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。# Z! l* d9 Y9 C
5 r4 y& D* p2 C: H* F增值
# T8 X. E" i8 X' H2 e$ b: k/ t* g
+ s# u" M7 w5 k; ?! ] I许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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- R2 E+ B$ p4 ~" Z3 k3 s2 s9 P0 c$ J你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?" g! t# `5 S$ i' H7 D5 r" J
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 3 W% Z. |- m, d l6 Y
: C( A& S$ i" W6 U3 L& v% W正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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6 C! M) J" U& i7 l M40%的机会你会收到150元的利润2 V# R/ @+ f- Y! \
60%的机会你会一无所有
6 L6 Y* u% L( z+ o: R预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 2 G6 u4 ]' s& x2 k8 ~
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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- t, N2 v% P' P$ {& W% b- _增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注% o2 F) H$ B1 }* D4 M E& ]$ S. L1 c
- t8 v1 @9 H% A) `4 L凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。) T8 N( a: o; W
6 Y; ?1 g# d E0 q2 I( t公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)3 I) _' m( N& c, Y6 T+ a2 K, P2 W
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A=博彩资金
5 ^! c+ s: i# h4 X0 X5 KP=获胜机会
# _+ Q4 R$ q5 f7 qO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)" h2 R$ Q5 s1 b2 Z/ ?' W: ]1 O
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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" z G+ I$ u# q: Y2 @9 `) }- L& L$ h好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)9 \; S) M/ W. O0 q8 r: S
' q" I/ s. B) ]A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0' @1 g& n/ K: i) t% P1 ]3 ^
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢% T, ?7 k: B6 g
+ z! ^/ D- f4 _. K8 \* u: k3 o2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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$ t$ m i6 O. T4 nA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
+ Y! P5 a" |# e5 G; |1 t; c" N8 X3 W. |. z2 j* { b
A=0.1
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7 [' g \7 \6 k) F% k" ^& q结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去' N4 R2 a; ]) S" h& {
! { R% j: D# ^4 f# V3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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/ v/ }/ M5 E6 C" J2 U8 jA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)$ Y6 ]9 l. q) _; \; Y! b, c
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A= -0.2 ' \/ u$ W* i+ ]8 Y) M; }" y o
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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