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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
9 ^% P( O5 R3 u: @
8 @! \+ p" |1 A5 }" Z! O" o0 a: U8 K$ l" x; k6 G/ a) f3 D V
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率3 \: t* r# v: \4 L7 D' c( @
* f; m: d6 i2 V7 t; b3 q3 k以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:" `2 q8 y7 i0 Q7 z- h
& b+ H$ _# i2 E9 y4 p1 W# \
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 5 ~8 N9 l6 r5 J) C: O& [: R' g
5 r. t0 r8 G+ A5 O3 ^! ]很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
; v9 ?4 t" G4 I3 v% s3 ?- P
) X) F% N) c O+ L6 W9 W! ]; `答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)# [8 v% W: @7 y* J7 _7 T& M
. @6 H# Z7 Z! c% e6 Y% H7 E9 \
: }. m# i+ O9 B- s以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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/ u+ P& p; ]: D- m# }0 E* D% u7 X
盈利可能性! V+ ^, D- D0 T: j) g
) f. C# f, n" I: s4 f: k对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
: e7 N H W" R& {! ]
- Z. N `- h9 V# q, }增值
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$ ?! B# J& A. z( B许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
" ~0 F: H. C( n+ B- P3 ?60%的机会你会一无所有
- {% R1 f- ]) e4 O8 B; ^预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 4 F& q9 M, A8 ]0 y
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。& s$ z, c4 {& q1 {+ A
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注& D @; ~4 C7 Y/ v
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。# z; W* A) Q" E3 F/ s3 Y/ K# o. O
/ v; y% @5 H5 o3 P2 u公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
& N. p- l @2 ~ Q% c% x
' M* v+ g& m8 ]' p, BA=博彩资金, o R* _6 n" K! A& O
P=获胜机会
5 c* {! [/ \" u$ z! s, JO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)5 ? [! D; L/ D* K3 l
" I! d# t, M! I) l( |6 s) P首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。! e H; W7 e7 n8 x7 r: X
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。4 D, e" t5 W5 B- g
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5) ]1 q8 a: [0 s* _0 x! N# i1 B
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
5 x. e# B" i. i; {# u
! W I M2 Y- h/ e/ sA=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢) P! ^; M& H: C
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)6 {; l+ i9 x& \& a9 i1 f% J
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)% k1 }, w, x3 }! }0 Z/ p9 J
2 S$ f0 {) R mA=0.1
& L1 o1 A* e# j# {5 `5 i) ~" u2 V' C
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)8 W% V m+ @/ P( k
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A= -0.2 . T7 H9 {: O( d5 ]5 ~, E( X( j
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好* x/ |# _! Z: I9 X) a$ q
9 P, |1 i3 c% p% P" z. d第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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