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亚锦赛天朝或能夺冠，伊朗仍是最大威胁
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从现在国家队自身的情况来看，现在的挑战似乎要比广州亚运会的时候更大一些，因为球队的整体水平在走下坡路。虽然邓华德仍然嘴硬说这届国家队是有史以来防守最好的，但实际上他的说法是站不住脚的。当一支队伍没有什么亮点的时候，似乎也只有用“我们有最好的防守”来为自己开脱。总体来看，男篮的实力有下滑，这是不争的事实。; X, }3 i# W, U7 {, h. `
在08年之后，老队员随着年龄的增长自身实力开始下滑，09年亚锦赛天朝男篮兵败天津，就是一个很明显的信号。在接下来的赛季常规赛里，这一点也得到了证明。进入2010年之后，国家队老队员在联赛中出现大规模伤病，在亚运会上，他们获得冠军的过程也极其艰难。老队员实力下滑，而年轻队员似乎也不是特别令人放心，虽然在08奥运之后许多年轻球员开始登上舞台，但无论从经验还是技术来看，他们还有很大的进步空间，但至少现在他们依然难以从前辈们的手里接过这杆枪。另外在姚明宣布退役之后，天朝男篮的最后一点儿幻想也就此破灭，这也就意味着天朝男篮必须拿出比广州亚运会时两倍到三倍的劲头，因为只有这样，男篮夺冠的概率才会更大一些。
6 q5 P! [2 _5 d ~ 男篮情况不容乐观，但是男篮的对手们似乎也一样遭遇着很大的麻烦。首先说韩国队，他们的阵容和之前的亚锦赛相比应该不会有太大的变化，在这支队伍中，他们所依靠的也是实力不断下滑的老队员，在之前的亚运会上，韩国队和天朝队都打进了决赛，实力可见一斑。但是，总体而言，天朝的阵容要明显优于对手，在实力上也更胜一筹。1 N. P* e! {1 N" ?- W
除了韩国之外，伊朗和黎巴嫩也是天朝球迷非常关注的，但是我个人觉得这两支球队目前问题也不小，黎巴嫩刚刚归化了一名球员，但是似乎并不能让他们满意，现在他们正打算规划之前天津队用过的外援，水平也很一般。而伊朗在最近的热身赛中接连遭遇败绩，输给安哥拉队15分之多，这一切都说明了其它球队也正在面临各种各样的问题。2 H1 W& @7 s$ Z
总之，我觉得伊朗、韩国和天朝队是争冠的大热门，天朝队究竟能否最终夺冠还要看临场的变化和队员们的状态。$ ^" P" V* G8 A' @
眼看着亚锦赛的日期日益临近，天朝男篮的赛程也密集起来。虽然姚明的退役对于天朝男篮是一个不小的打击，但是姚明的退役对天朝男篮在亚锦赛的布局并没有太大的影响。因为即使姚明健康，他也不会参加这次亚锦赛。不管有没有姚明，亚锦赛天朝队总要参加，不但要参加，而且要拿好成绩，因为这关系到他们能否直接进入伦敦奥运会。 |
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