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[虚拟币交流]
比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转）
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比特币价格再次攀升，而这波市场上涨与美国货币政策预期的转变不谋而合。
, Q8 l& z5 C7 T
' L' P6 F2 E" w9 |' E/ h要点总结：1 D% t" N" J- _ r0 j1 @9 |
由于交易员预期在凯文·哈塞特可能出任美联储主席的情况下，美联储的立场会更加鸽派，比特币价格反弹至 91,000 美元以上。+ J; U. m- t$ K+ K# W5 z! [
链上& k' r! e1 i% @) _ E1 o7 A
在区块链上记录和验证的交易。
, q, o8 X+ @! a( D- _" d# K4 \9 K ?8 d# C% G& l" Z' V: Q5 f
链上信号有所改善，Puell 倍数从深度累积水平上升。/ h, P$ ~7 S6 }8 `7 i9 k
技术指标偏向看涨，但 93000 美元和 96500 美元仍然是下一个关键阻力位。/ W& O& L4 R; M$ c8 R
本周早些时候发生滑倒后，比特币 受交易量上升以及衍生品和链上分析市场情绪改善的支撑，该股在过去 24 小时内反弹至 91,000 美元区域，涨幅达 4%。
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美联储主席预期转变——比特币做出反应
# K( E4 ]1 U5 h/ w6 J7 R2 ?) N# a推动今天这一举动的关键因素似乎是人们越来越相信凯文·哈塞特现在是……领先候选人在唐纳德·特朗普总统的领导下，哈塞特有望成为下一任美联储主席。预测市场显示，哈塞特遥遥领先于其他竞争者，而且他的政策立场被认为明显更为鸽派——倾向于更大幅度的降息，并可能推出新的量化宽松政策（QE）。: z7 a7 k- W. v& h% {6 E
5 U) ~- o! g4 G3 |. G* \$ f当市场对未来的货币政策走向有了更清晰的预期时，风险资产往往会提前反映出这种转变。比特币交易员押注哈塞特领导下的美联储将倾向于宽松的金融环境，而历史上这种环境对加密货币通常是有利的。
$ h, l D% y/ Z; r
% Y" P8 S0 `* ^) Z链上指标变得具有建设性& V3 o; _6 w: M! c. V# o# h
普埃尔倍数（Puell Multiple）是一个备受关注的模型，历史上它通常预示着比特币周期触底，当该指标跌破 0.50 时，比特币价格就会触底反弹。目前，该指标已升至 0.67。虽然这一数值仍处于下行积累区间，但分析师指出，当该指标从低位回升时，比特币通常会开始恢复上涨动能。
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普埃尔倍数已对比特币进行了标记$BTC自 2015 年以来，当价格跌破 0.50 时，周期便触底。
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' T+ A( \6 ^# v/ |% o现在是0.67。pic.twitter.com/6Z0ednSaRf9 Q3 ~1 o$ s8 B$ U( N
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— Ali (@ali_charts)2025年11月26日. P4 m5 i& b- C- c% L$ R
( ]& c( N8 h( M5 }市场观察人士强调，以往的周期中，当矿业公司收入趋于稳定且普埃尔倍数脱离极低水平时，都会出现大幅上涨——这种模式现在开始重演。$ |2 E6 s& q' ^& l: V/ D% \
( B% x' J) c3 a9 y* M {% J( ]/ v衍生品在最近的价格波动中发挥了作用。过去一天，价值超过 1.32 亿美元的比特币头寸……清算其中空头占了绝大部分（约1.14亿美元）。资金重置和强制清算进一步推动了比特币在上周大幅抛售后的反弹。5 s. G! ]; }% j+ E0 L
8 M) f. f. E- n0 y2 D8 V d2 q技术图表显示动能正在增强。
- M, t8 A: z k4 Q3 \比特币4小时图显示结构正在走强，RSI
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相对强弱指数
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& y. K- G6 u6 H/ T和 RSI正在恢复到65-70分的水平MACD9 E. `, [; Y: J5 B8 g
移动平均收敛/发散7 }: C) H; C( G1 X0 X7 |0 w: ^8 }
" T7 Y, S0 f) ]+ r. Z* `" B“>MACD向上突破零轴，表明动能正在增强。, [) y4 Q9 i U
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